Collaborative Research: RIPS Type 2: Quantifying Disaster Resilience of Critical Infrastructure-based Societal Systems with Emergent Behavior and Dynamic Interdependencies

合作研究：RIPS 类型 2：量化具有紧急行为和动态相互依赖性的基于关键基础设施的社会系统的抗灾能力

• 批准号: 1441224
• 负责人: Elise Miller-Hooks
• 金额: $ 145.28万
• 依托单位: University of Maryland, College Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-01 至 2017-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1441224&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; RIPS; Type; Quantifying

This project will create a way to measure the resilience of critical infrastructure-based societal systems (CISSs) that are necessary for community functioning. A CISS is comprised of interdependent buildings that together serve a community function and that are dependent on networks of critical lifelines (water, wastewater, power, natural gas, communications and cyber-communications, and transportation). They are a family of structures that are linked by occupancy type, people, policies, information, geographic location, and/or building services, and thus also rely on human, organizational, political, and cyber links. Examples of a CISS structure include, but are not limited to, a school district, a healthcare delivery system, a government building, a university campus, a hospitality facility, a residential building, or a central business district. The project will focus on the impact of single or compound hazardous events on CISSs. The initial loss of a structure due to physical damage can spread throughout the CISS or its supporting lifelines. Subsequently, these interdependencies are dynamic and change over time through human intervention, emergent organizational behaviors, and policy changes. Finally, repairs and work-arounds can diminish the impact of the hazardous event(s). As a test, the resulting framework and specific techniques will be demonstrated on one type of CISS: a healthcare system. Insights gleaned from this test case can be applied to improve, build, and maintain communities that are more likely to withstand disruption or disaster. This effort will directly inform practicing healthcare managers and emergency planners. The project will uniquely incorporate public policy, organizational policy, organizational behaviors and risk communication into a broader assessment of disaster resilience data of multiple hazards. An integrated approach will be used to describe the role of adaptation (organizational behaviors) and human interventions in interdependency dynamics. The project will seek to understand and model how organizational behaviors emerge and evolve during a disaster event. Moreover, it will study how cyber systems increase the impact of damage, resulting vulnerabilities to follow-on attacks, and approaches to prevent such escalation. Such approaches include risk communications strategies, using security systems and protocols, and taking other adaptive actions. How organizations work together to simulate and interpret reality, and how this can shift or change disaster response, will be studied. The impact of strategic communication on resilience will be measured. Analysis will require dynamic fault-tree and modeling of complex, adaptive systems with time-varying system states and changes. It will address the need for a computational framework for a large-scale model with significant dimensionality concerns. Additionally, educational and outreach tasks are aimed at strengthening the pipeline of women in STEM fields at multiple education and career stages by adopting a "360" mentorship philosophy that will foster training of female scientists of all ages to be high-caliber mentors.

该项目将创造一种方法来衡量基于基础架构的关键社会系统（CISSS）的弹性，这对于社区运作所必需。 CISS由相互依存的建筑物组成，它们共同发挥了社区功能，并取决于关键寿命（水，废水，电力，天然气，通信和网络通信以及运输）的网络。它们是一个由占用类型，人，政策，信息，地理位置和/或建筑服务联系起来的结构家庭，因此也依靠人类，组织，政治和网络链接。 CISS结构的例子包括但不限于学区，医疗保健服务系统，政府大楼，大学校园，酒店设施，住宅建筑或中央商务区。该项目将集中于单个或复合危险事件对CISS的影响。由于物理损害而导致的结构的初始损失可能会传播到整个CISS或其支撑寿命。随后，这些相互依存是动态的，并且通过人类干预，新兴的组织行为和政策变化而随着时间的流逝而变化。最后，维修和工作可以减少危险事件的影响。作为测试，将在一种类型的CISS上展示所得的框架和特定技术：一种医疗保健系统。可以从该测试案例中收集的见解来改善，建立和维护更有可能承受中断或灾难的社区。这项工作将直接为执业医疗保健经理和紧急计划师提供信息。该项目将唯一地将公共政策，组织政策，组织行为和风险交流纳入对多种危害的灾难弹性数据的更广泛评估。一种综合方法将用于描述适应性（组织行为）和人类干预在相互依存动态中的作用。该项目将寻求理解和模拟在灾难事件中组织行为如何出现和发展的方式。此外，它将研究网络系统如何增加损害的影响，导致跟进攻击的脆弱性以及防止这种升级的方法。这种方法包括风险通信策略，使用安全系统和协议以及采取其他自适应动作。将研究组织如何共同努力模拟和解释现实，以及如何改变或改变灾难响应。将测量战略沟通对弹性的影响。分析将需要动态的故障树以及具有随时间变化的系统状态和变化的复杂，自适应系统的建模。它将满足对具有重大维度问题的大型模型的计算框架的需求。此外，通过采用“ 360”的指导理念，旨在通过多个教育和职业阶段的STEM领域的女性管道来加强教育和外展任务，以促进对所有年龄段的女性科学家的培训，成为高素质导师。