Emergency Preparedness Planning and On-Line Evacuation of Large Buildings

大型建筑物的应急准备规划和在线疏散

• 批准号: 0218621
• 负责人: Elise Miller-Hooks
• 金额: $ 30万
• 依托单位: Pennsylvania State Univ University Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2002
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2002-08-15 至 2003-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0218621&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Emergency; Preparedness; Planning; Line; Evacuation

The primary focus of this research activity is the development of the conceptual framework and methodological steps for determining optimal and robust tactical and operational strategies for rapidly evacuating a large burning building or a building that has come under attack by enemy or natural catastrophe. Both emergency preparedness planning and real-time execution are addressed. Tactical preparedness concerns involve the selection of carefully planned a priori evacuation paths that consider the inherent dynamic and uncertain nature of conditions that exist in emergency situations requiring evacuation. Operational concerns address the on-line determination of evacuation paths that are updated in real-time as actual conditions of the building structures and circulation systems (i.e. means of egress) are revealed and predictions related to risk of continued failure concerning the structural members and portions of the circulation systems are updated.The need for modeling the dynamic and uncertain nature of conditions in emergency evacuation stems from the fact that such events are often characterized by dangers that strengthen and spread over time. These circumstances induce the possibility that successful egress may be inhibited by partial or complete failure of key escape paths. Moreover, we cannot know how the situation will progress with certainty even if the exact location and type of event that initiated the need for the evacuation is known. Existing methodologies for determining optimal evacuation paths do not consider this uncertainty and the dynamically varying conditions inherent in post-blast, fire or other situations requiring emergency evacuation. Instructions that do not consider the evolution of damage over time and threats of probable additional destruction and deterioration can result in suboptimal decisions that can lead to unnecessary imposed risk and unnecessary lost lives. The algorithmic developments undertaken in this research effort will explicitly consider these characteristics in determination of the evacuation path strategies, resulting in robust evacuation plans with lower probability of failure than paths determined otherwise. Teaching, training and learning will be enhanced through the development of real-world case studies that will be studied in the classroom and through a comprehensive graduate course related to risk analyses and emergency management. Evacuation plans resulting from the proposed research activities will enable faster and more efficient evacuation of a building in the event of military attack, fire, natural disaster, discovery of a hazardous material or biological agent, or other circumstances warranting quick escape. This will result in reduction in: the number of injured persons, trapped evacuees, or lost lives. The methodologies developed in this research effort will also be pertinent for evaluating existing evacuation plans and for identifying potentially high-risk circumstances. These results will impact many other functional areas as well, including, evacuation of a geographical region due to military attack, human-made accident, or natural disaster, such as an accident involving a nuclear power plant or escape of hazardous chemicals, collapse of a structure such as dam walls, hurricane, earthquake, flooding, volcanic eruption, or tsunami.

这项研究活动的主要重点是开发概念框架和方法论步骤，以确定迅速撤离大型燃烧建筑物或已受到敌人或自然灾难攻击的大型燃烧建筑物或建筑物的最佳战术和操作策略。紧急准备计划和实时执行均已解决。战术准备的问题涉及选择精心计划的先验撤离路径，该途径考虑了需要撤离的紧急情况下存在的固有的动态和不确定性质。揭示了操作问题解决撤离途径的在线确定，这些疏散路径是在建筑结构和循环系统的实际条件（即出口式）的实际条件（即出口均值）进行的，并且预测与持续失败有关的风险相关的循环系统的结构成员和部分的循环系统的更新。 时间。这些情况引起的可能性可能会因关键逃生路径的部分或完全失败而抑制成功的出口。此外，即使已经知道撤离需求的确切位置和事件的确切位置和类型，我们也无法确定情况如何进行。确定最佳撤离路径的现有方法并不考虑这种不确定性，也不认为需要紧急撤离的爆炸后，火灾或其他情况下固有的动态变化条件。不考虑随着时间的推移损害演变的说明以及可能造成的额外破坏和恶化的威胁可能会导致次优的决定，这可能会导致不必要的施加风险和不必要的丧生。在这项研究工作中进行的算法发展将在确定疏散路径策略时明确考虑这些特征，从而导致强大的疏散计划，其失败可能性低于否则确定的路径。通过在课堂上和与风险分析和紧急管理有关的全面研究生课程进行研究，将通过开发现实世界中的案例研究来增强教学，培训和学习。拟议的研究活动产生的疏散计划将使在军事袭击，火灾，自然灾害，发现有害物质或生物毒理的发现或其他情况下，可以更快，更有效地撤离建筑物。这将导致减少：受伤的人的数量，被困的疏散者或丧生。在这项研究工作中开发的方法也将与评估现有的疏散计划和确定潜在的高风险情况有关。这些结果还将影响许多其他功能区域，包括由于军事攻击，人为事故或自然灾害而导致的地理区域撤离，例如涉及核电站或危险化学物质逃生的事故，诸如大坝墙，飓风，地震，洪水，洪水，挥发性爆发或tsunami等结构的崩溃。