Coastal SEES Collaborative Research: A cross-site comparison of salt marsh persistence in response to sea-level rise and feedbacks from social adaptations

沿海 SEES 合作研究：盐沼持久性对海平面上升的响应和社会适应反馈的跨地点比较

• 批准号: 1426981
• 负责人: Matthew Kirwan
• 金额: $ 43.16万
• 依托单位: College of William & Mary Virginia Institute of Marine Science
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-01-01 至 2020-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1426981&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Coastal; SEES; Collaborative; Research; cross

Nearly half of the world's population lives within 100 km of the coast, the area ranked as the most vulnerable to climate-driven sea-level rise (SLR). Projected rates of accelerated SLR are expected to cause massive changes that would transform both the ecological and social dynamics of low-lying coastal areas. It is thus essential to improve understanding of the sustainability of coupled coastal human-environment systems in the face of SLR. Salt marshes are intertidal habitats that provide a buffer for coastal communities to SLR and are also valued for many other ecosystem services, including wildlife habitat, nutrient cycling, carbon sequestration, aesthetics, and tourism. They are highly dynamic systems that have kept pace with changes in sea level over millennia. However, projected rates of SLR and increased human modification of coastal watersheds and shorelines may push marshes past a tipping point beyond which they are lost. Developing realistic scenarios of marsh vulnerability demands an integrated approach to understanding the feedbacks between the biophysical and social factors that influence the persistence of marshes and their supporting functions. This project will examine the comparative vulnerability of salt marshes to SLR in three U.S. Atlantic coastal sites that vary with respect to sediment supply, tidal range and human impacts. The research team will also address how feedbacks from potential adaptations influence marsh vulnerability, associated economic benefits and costs, and practical management decisions. Additional broader impacts include incorporating research results into curriculum used at local schools, an on-line cross-disciplinary graduate course, and on-going teacher-training programs, as well as training one postdoctoral researcher, four graduate students, and eight undergraduate researchers. This project is supported as part of the National Science Foundation's Coastal Science, Engineering, and Education for Sustainability program - Coastal SEES.This project leverages the long-term data, experiments and modeling tools at three Atlantic Coast Long-Term Ecological Research sites (in MA, VA, GA), and addresses the broad interdisciplinary question "How will feedbacks between marsh response to SLR and human adaptation responses to potential marsh loss affect the overall sustainability of the combined socio-ecological systems?" The goals of the project are to understand: 1) how marsh vulnerability to current and projected SLR, with and without adaptation actions, compares across biogeographic provinces and a range of biophysical and social drivers; and 2) which marsh protection actions local stakeholder groups favor, and the broader sustainability and economic value implications of feasible adaptation options. The biophysical research uses historical trends, "point" and spatial models to determine threshold and long-term responses of marshes to SLR. Social responses to marsh vulnerability are integrated with biophysical models through future scenario planning with stakeholders, economic valuation of marsh adaptation options, and focus groups that place the combined project results within a concrete policy planning context to assess how marshes fit into the larger view of coastal socio-ecological sustainability. This integrated approach at multiple sites along gradients of both environmental and human drivers will allow for general conclusions to be made about human-natural system interactions and sustainability that can be broadly applicable to other coastal systems.

世界上近一半的人口居住在距海岸 100 公里范围内，该地区是最容易受到气候驱动的海平面上升 (SLR) 影响的地区。预计 SLR 加速将引起巨大变化，从而改变低洼沿海地区的生态和社会动态。因此，在 SLR 面前，提高对沿海人类环境耦合系统可持续性的理解至关重要。盐沼是潮间带栖息地，为沿海社区提供了 SLR 的缓冲区，并且还具有许多其他生态系统服务的价值，包括野生动物栖息地、养分循环、碳封存、美学和旅游业。它们是高度动态的系统，几千年来一直与海平面的变化保持同步。然而，预计的 S​​LR 率以及人类对沿海流域和海岸线改造的增加可能会将沼泽推过一个临界点，超过这个临界点就会消失。制定沼泽脆弱性的现实场景需要一种综合方法来理解影响沼泽持久性及其支持功能的生物物理和社会因素之间的反馈。该项目将研究美国大西洋沿岸三个地点盐沼对 SLR 的相对脆弱性，这些地点的沉积物供应、潮差和人类影响各不相同。研究小组还将讨论潜在适应的反馈如何影响沼泽脆弱性、相关的经济效益和成本以及实际的管理决策。其他更广泛的影响包括将研究成果纳入当地学校使用的课程、在线跨学科研究生课程和持续的教师培训计划，以及培训一名博士后研究员、四名研究生和八名本科生研究人员。该项目作为国家科学基金会沿海科学、工程和可持续发展教育计划 - 沿海 SEES 的一部分得到支持。该项目利用了三个大西洋海岸长期生态研究站点（位于MA、VA、GA），并解决了广泛的跨学科问题“沼泽对 SLR 的反应和人类对潜在沼泽损失的适应反应之间的反馈将如何影响综合社会生态系统的整体可持续性？”该项目的目标是了解：1）在采取和不采取适应行动的情况下，如何比较不同生物地理省份和一系列生物物理和社会驱动因素对当前和预计的 S​​LR 的沼泽脆弱性； 2) 当地利益相关团体青睐哪些沼泽保护行动，以及可行的适应方案的更广泛的可持续性和经济价值影响。生物物理学研究使用历史趋势、“点”和空间模型来确定沼泽对 SLR 的阈值和长期响应。通过与利益相关者的未来情景规划、沼泽适应方案的经济评估以及焦点小组，将对沼泽脆弱性的社会反应与生物物理模型相结合，将综合项目结果置于具体的政策规划背景下，以评估沼泽如何适应沿海的更大视野。社会生态可持续性。这种沿着环境和人类驱动因素梯度在多个地点进行的综合方法将有助于得出关于人与自然系统相互作用和可持续性的一般结论，这些结论可广泛适用于其他沿海系统。

项目成果

Sea-level driven land conversion and the formation of ghost forests

海平面驱动的土地转变和幽灵森林的形成

• DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0488-7
• 发表时间: 2019-06-01
• 期刊: Nature Climate Change
• 影响因子: 30.7
• 作者: M. Kirwan;K. Gedan
• 通讯作者: K. Gedan

Massive Upland to Wetland Conversion Compensated for Historical Marsh Loss in Chesapeake Bay, USA

美国切萨皮克湾的大规模高地向湿地转变弥补了历史上的沼泽损失

• DOI: 10.1007/s12237-017-0336-9
• 发表时间: 2018-06-01
• 期刊: Estuaries and Coasts
• 影响因子: 2.7
• 作者: Nathalie W. Schieder;D. Walters;M. Kirwan
• 通讯作者: M. Kirwan

Future response of global coastal wetlands to sea-level rise

全球滨海湿地对海平面上升的未来响应

• DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0476-5
• 发表时间: 2018-09-01
• 期刊: Nature
• 影响因子: 64.8
• 作者: M. Schuerch;T. Spencer;S. Temmerman;M. Kirwan;C. Wolff;D. Lincke;C. McOwen;Mark D. Pickering
• 通讯作者: Mark D. Pickering

Improving Predictions of Salt Marsh Evolution Through Better Integration of Data and Models

通过更好地集成数据和模型来改进盐沼演化的预测

• DOI: 10.1146/annurev-marine-010419-010610
• 发表时间: 2019-07
• 期刊: Annual Review of Marine Science
• 影响因子: 17.3
• 作者: Wiberg, Patricia L.;Fagherazzi, Sergio;Kirwan, Matthew L.
• 通讯作者: Kirwan, Matthew L.