Collaborative Research: Climate Change, Cannibalism, and Reproductive Synchrony: The Effect of Food Shortages on Life History Strategies of Marine Organisms

合作研究：气候变化、同类相食和繁殖同步：食物短缺对海洋生物生命史策略的影响

• 批准号: 1407564
• 负责人: Jim Cushing
• 金额: $ 30万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-01 至 2020-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1407564&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Climate; Change; Cannibalism

Higher temperatures associated with climate change can cause changes in marine food webs, resulting in a diminished food supply for top consumers. In response, these consumer species must change strategies and behaviors in order to adapt. One change that has been observed in numerous species is an increase in cannibalism. Another is the timing of reproductive activities. Such changes can in turn lead to a cascade of changes throughout an ecosystem, affecting survival of individual species and the well-being of the entire system. El Niño events mimic some features of long-term climate change on short time scales, allowing for tests of some climate-related hypotheses in marine systems. This project will examine the impact of climate-change-related food shortages on organisms both theoretically, using mathematical models, and empirically, at a large colony of seabirds that function as an important indicator species. The work will provide cross-disciplinary training in mathematical biology for undergraduate, masters, and Ph.D. students. The project emphasizes training undergraduates and members from underrepresented groups. Undergraduate students will be involved at every stage of the research process, from data collection and analysis to joint authorship of peer-reviewed publications. The investigators engage the general public and wildlife managers through public lectures and interviews, and by working with biologists and managers from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The results of this work have important implications for the management of natural populations responding to climate change.In previous work the investigators demonstrated (1) a strong positive association between rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and increased egg cannibalism in glaucous-winged gulls (Larus glaucescens), which are important indicators of marine environmental quality; and (2) the existence of every-other-day ovulation synchrony in glaucous-winged gulls, with the degree of synchronization proportional to colony density. Proof-of-concept mathematical models suggest that the two traits may be co-adaptive, and that, in general, rising SSTs may initiate a cascade of changes in life history strategies in colonial seabirds. The objectives of this study are to (1) develop and analyze general mathematical models for exploring the interaction of SSTs, reduced environmental food availability, cannibalism, and reproductive synchrony in terms of population and adaptive dynamic responses to changes in food availability; (2) field test, in a specific system, predictions associated with two general hypotheses suggested by the mathematical models, namely, that cannibalism is an adaptive response to decreased food supply, which can be a consequence of increased SST, and that reproductive synchrony is an adaptive response to cannibalism; and (3) train undergraduate, master's, and Ph.D. students in interdisciplinary STEM research involving mathematical modeling and field research, intentionally emphasizing the training of underrepresented groups.

与气候变化相关的高温可能会导致海洋食物网发生变化，导致顶级消费者的食物供应减少。为此，这些消费者物种必须改变策略和行为才能适应。在许多物种中观察到的一个变化是。另一个原因是繁殖活动的时间发生变化，从而影响整个生态系统的一系列变化，影响单个物种的生存和整个系统的福祉。短期内的长期气候变化规模，允许在海洋系统中测试一些与气候相关的假设，该项目将使用数学模型从理论上研究与气候变化相关的食物短缺对生物体的影响，并通过大量海鸟的经验进行研究。该项目将为本科生、硕士生和博士生提供数学生物学的跨学科培训，并强调对本科生和来自代表性不足的群体的成员进行培训。过程，来自数据收集研究人员通过公开讲座和访谈，并与美国鱼类和野生动物管理局的生物学家和管理人员合作，与公众和野生动物管理人员进行了合作。这项工作的结果具有重要意义。应对气候变化的自然种群管理。在之前的工作中，研究人员证明了（1）海面温度（SST）上升与白翅鸥（Larus）同类相食行为增加之间存在很强的正相关关系。 glaucescens），这是海洋环境质量的重要指标；（2）白翅鸥每隔一天排卵同步，概念验证数学模型表明同步程度与群体密度成正比。这两个特征可能是相互适应的，而且一般来说，海温上升可能会引发殖民地海鸟生活史策略的一系列变化。 (1) 开发和分析通用数学模型，用于探索 SST、环境粮食供应减少、同类相食和生殖同步性之间的相互作用以及对粮食供应变化的适应性动态响应；(2) 在特定系统中进行现场测试； ，与数学模型提出的两个一般假设相关的预测，即同类相食是对食物供应减少的适应性反应，这可能是海温增加的结果，而生殖同步性是对同类相食的适应性反应；以及（3）火车本科生、硕士生和博士生参与涉及数学建模和实地研究的跨学科 STEM 研究，有意强调对代表性不足群体的培训。