FESD Type 1:The impact of the ozone hole on the climate of the Southern Hemisphere

FESD类型1：臭氧空洞对南半球​​气候的影响

• 批准号: 1338814
• 负责人: John Marshall
• 金额: $ 484万
• 依托单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-09-01 至 2020-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1338814&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: FESD; Type; impact; ozone; hole

The dramatic depletion of the Antarctic ozone since the late 1970s has introduced a major perturbation to the radiative balance of the stratosphere with a wide range of consequences for climate. There is strong evidence that ozone loss has significantly altered the climate of the southern hemisphere troposphere, including the surface, with implications for ocean circulation, the cryosphere and coupled carbon cycle. As ozone depletion recovers in the next half-century or so, a corresponding reversal of these changes can be expected, providing an unprecedented opportunity to observe how the climate system relaxes from a known perturbation. The effort proposed here focuses on improving the understanding of current southern hemisphere climate changes linked to ozone depletion, so that we can better prepare to maximize the learning experience represented by the future healing of the ozone hole through identification of mechanisms, impacts, and observable indicators.The Southern Hemisphere is of huge importance to the trajectory of the global climate system and presents a fascinating intellectual and modeling challenge involving interdisciplinary study of the coupling of the stratosphere, troposphere and ocean; coupling of chemistry, radiation and dynamics in the stratosphere; coupling of the ocean, ice and atmosphere at the earth?s surface; the coupling of the carbon cycle to ocean dynamics. The problem is multiscale and multi-component that requires the bringing together of atmospheric chemistry, ocean biogeochemistry, sea-ice dynamics together with atmospheric and ocean dynamics and transport.To tackle this problem we have assembled an interdisciplinary team of researchers from MIT, Columbia University, Johns Hopkins University and NCAR, whose expertise covers the above areas. A suite of models of different complexity will be deployed to explore the mechanisms, impacts and indicators of the Antarctic stratospheric ozone hole and its recovery on the climate of the atmosphere-oceanice- carbon system. To this end we will explore: (i) how interactive chemistry modifies the coupling between the stratospheric vortex and the rest of the climate system (ii) resulting changes in ocean circulation, ice cover, heat and carbon uptake, and biogeochemistry of the southern ocean (iii) the impacts and observable indicators of the ozone hole on the global climate.Intellectual meritThe problem outlined here is one of the most challenging in climate science demanding the development and deployment of a modeling hierarchy that arcs from the stratosphere to the interior ocean and couples chemistry, radiation, fluid dynamics, ice dynamics and the carbon cycle. Moreover, it is one that is amenable to study in the context of the instrumental record. An important product of the study is to make an initial list of climate indicators that could be used to monitor the rebound of SH climate from the ozone hole and its evolution over the next few decades in the presence of ever increasing greenhouse gas forcing.Broader ImpactsWe will extend ongoing activity at MIT and Northeastern University in which K-12 teachers are educated about climate science in the context of national science curriculum development and include some of these activities in K-12 programs at JHU and Columbia. We also propose to host and engage in our research and educational activities Summer Research Program (MSRP) students at MIT, an institutional effort that facilitates the involvement of talented students in engineering and science research, particularly those from underrepresented groups. Finally we propose to engage the broad science community on southern hemisphere climate change through two workshops, including developing a community view on indicators and needed observations.

自1970年代后期以来，南极臭氧的巨大耗竭引入了对平流层辐射平衡的主要扰动，对气候带来了广泛的后果。有强有力的证据表明，臭氧损失显着改变了包括表面在内的南半球对流层的气候，对海洋循环，冰冻圈和耦合碳循环产生了影响。随着臭氧耗竭在接下来的半个世纪左右的时间里恢复，可以预期对这些变化的相应逆转，从而提供了前所未有的机会，可以观察气候系统如何从已知的扰动中放松。这里提出的努力重点是提高对与臭氧耗竭相关的当前南半球气候变化的理解，以便我们可以更好地准备通过确定机制，影响和可观察到的指标来最大程度地提高臭氧洞的未来康复所代表的学习经验。平流层，对流层和海洋耦合的跨学科研究；平流层中化学，辐射和动力学的耦合；大地表面的海洋，冰和大气的耦合；碳循环与海洋动力学的耦合。这个问题是多尺度和多组件，需要将大气化学，海洋生物地球化学，海冰动力学以及大气和海洋动力和运输汇集在一起​​。为了解决这个问题，我们已经组建了一个来自MIT，MIT，哥伦比亚大学，哥伦比亚大学，约翰·霍普金斯大学和NCAR的研究人员的跨学科研究团队，其专业知识涵盖了以上熟悉的领域。将部署一系列不同复杂性的模型，以探索南极平流层臭氧孔的机制，影响和指标及其在大气 - 环境 - 碳系统气候下的恢复。为此，我们将探讨：（i）如何改变平流层涡流与其他气候系统（II）之间的耦合，从而导致海洋循环，冰覆盖，热量和碳吸收和生物地球化学的变化，以及南方海洋的生物地球化学（III）的一项范围和可观察到的范围的挑战率是全球范围的指标。气候科学要求开发和部署建模层次结构，该层次结构从平流层到室内海洋和夫妻化学，辐射，流体动力学，冰动力学和碳循环。此外，它可以在乐器记录的背景下进行研究。 An important product of the study is to make an initial list of climate indicators that could be used to monitor the rebound of SH climate from the ozone hole and its evolution over the next few decades in the presence of ever increasing greenhouse gas forcing.Broader ImpactsWe will extend ongoing activity at MIT and Northeastern University in which K-12 teachers are educated about climate science in the context of national science curriculum development and include some of these activities in K-12 programs at JHU和哥伦比亚。我们还建议在麻省理工学院接待和从事我们的研究和教育活动夏季研究计划（MSRP）学生，这是一种机构努力，促进了才华横溢的学生参与工程和科学研究，尤其是来自代表性不足的团体的研究和努力。最后，我们建议通过两个研讨会与南半球气候变化的广泛科学界参与，包括对指标和所需观察的看法。