Collaborative Research: EaSM2--Wildfires and Regional Climate Variability - Mechanisms, Modeling, and Prediction

合作研究：EaSM2——野火和区域气候变化——机制、建模和预测

• 批准号: 1243220
• 负责人: Yuhang Wang
• 金额: $ 121.55万
• 依托单位: Georgia Tech Research Corporation
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-05-01 至 2019-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1243220&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; EaSM2; Wildfires; Regional

Wildfire is a key component of the climate system and plays an important role in regulating regional climate variability. The overarching goal of this project is to elucidate the role of wildfire in decadal climate variation and prediction. On the basis of wildfire observations in the past decade, the regions that the variability of fire is large will be selected for targeted modeling analysis. The working hypotheses are that the observed fire variability is regulated by regional climate variation and that the climate feedbacks from fires increase regional climate variability. Consequently, the simulation of wildfires and their feedbacks is essential for predicting regional climate variability on a decadal scale. These hypotheses will be thoroughly tested and the mechanistic process will be carefully analyzed using an extensive suite of observations and selected ensembles of climate model simulations. In this project, the modeling capability of wildfires and their climate forcing will be developed by building a new Region-specific Fire Model with Ecosystem Feedbacks (RFMEF). Regional climate forcing by wildfires and fire feedbacks to regional climate variability will be quantified. Lastly fully interactive regional fire-climate variability feedbacks will be investigated to understand the projections of decadal regional climate variability. Understanding the interannual and decadal-scale regional climate variability is critical for designing and testing (regional) adaptation and mitigation strategies. Many atmospheric, oceanic, and ecosystem factors contribute to regional climate variability and most of these factors are already captured in the earth system models. One such factor not yet well represented is wildfire. The two-way interactions between regional climate variability and wildfire not only are important in improving the decadal-scale climate model simulation and prediction but also are necessary when applying the climate model to examine adaptation strategies targeted at the vulnerability induced by enhanced climate variation (due in part to these interactions) and to investigate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies of forest management practices. The open-source RFMEF fire model that will be developed for the Community Earth System Model (CESM) system and the climate modeling data that will be generated in the project will enable policy experts to conduct more in-depth analysis of climate policies in regions strongly affected by wildfire and allow other scientists to conduct climate simulations and prediction that include the fire-ecosystem-climate interactions and that are more suitable for their research and assessment needs.

野火是气候系统的关键组成部分，在调节区域气候变化方面发挥着重要作用。该项目的总体目标是阐明野火在十年间气候变化和预测中的作用。在近十年山火观测的基础上，选择火灾变异性较大的地区进行有针对性的建模分析。工作假设是，观测到的火灾变化受到区域气候变化的调节，火灾的气候反馈增加了区域气候变化。因此，野火及其反馈的模拟对于预测十年尺度的区域气候变化至关重要。这些假设将得到彻底的测试，并且将使用大量的观测数据和选定的气候模型模拟集合来仔细分析其机制过程。在该项目中，将通过建立具有生态系统反馈的新区域特定火灾模型（RFMEF）来开发野火及其气候强迫的建模能力。野火对区域气候的强迫以及火灾对区域气候变化的反馈将被量化。最后，将研究完全互动的区域火灾-气候变化反馈，以了解十年区域气候变化的预测。了解年际和十年尺度的区域气候变化对于设计和测试（区域）适应和缓解战略至关重要。许多大气、海洋和生态系统因素都会导致区域气候变化，其中大多数因素已经在地球系统模型中得到了体现。尚未得到充分体现的因素之一是野火。区域气候变化与野火之间的双向相互作用不仅对于改进十年尺度气候模型模拟和预测具有重要意义，而且在应用气候模型研究针对气候变化加剧引起的脆弱性的适应策略时也是必要的（由于部分归因于这些相互作用）并调查森林管理实践缓解策略的有效性。将为社区地球系统模型（CESM）系统开发的开源RFMEF火灾模型以及项目中将生成的气候建模数据将有力地帮助政策专家对地区气候政策进行更深入的分析受野火影响，并允许其他科学家进行气候模拟和预测，其中包括火灾-生态系统-气候相互作用，并且更适合他们的研究和评估需求。