An integrated multi-directional approach to understanding local hydrologic responses to global climate change

了解当地水文对全球气候变化响应的综合多向方法

• 批准号: 1250087
• 负责人: Julie Vano
• 金额: $ 17万
• 依托单位: Vano Julie A
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Fellowship Award
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-10-01 至 2015-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1250087&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: integrated; multi; directional; approach; understanding

Dr. Julie Vano has been awarded an NSF Earth Science Postdoctoral Fellowship to develop new approaches to understand future climate impacts on local water resources in the Pacific Northwest. A warmer climate threatens to alter where, when, and how much water is available for ecosystems and human communities. Yet water resource managers, who constantly work to find balance between a diversity of stakeholder needs, are unsure how to incorporate climate change into their planning processes. This research addresses this challenge through developing two new approaches to scenario planning that can be more effectively used by water resource managers and decision-makers. These approaches use global climate model output, hydrological models, and impact assessment tools to construct scenarios of future hydroclimate. The first begins with climate scenarios and hydrologic sensitivities to understand central tendencies and ranges of runoff changes - sensitivities identified through modeled experiments of how changes in temperature and precipitation translate to changes in streamflow magnitude. The second explores runoff extremes by using the same modeling framework, but works in the reverse direction: first, resource managers identify a metric of concern, e.g. flow above 75 Kcfs at a certain gauge, then hydrologic factors that lead to the metric are diagnosed, and finally connections to climate drivers are quantified. Floods in the Columbia River will be the test case for this impacts-driven approach. This research will be carried out at Oregon State University, where it will leverage established networks between researchers and stakeholders. The project aims to: (1) improve understanding of and the connections between atmospheric conditions, hydrologic processes, land surface properties, and local hydrologic impacts, (2) develop new approaches to quantify local change through using concepts of hydrologic landscape sensitivities to changes in central tendencies (incremental changes) and extreme events, and (3) build lasting partnerships between science and management that ensures decision-maker participation in the research process, so as to create appropriate tools to better evaluate the sustainability of future water planning options. Throughout this work, there will be a continued effort to insure results are relevant to the larger management community through stakeholder meetings, the experiences of which will be used to create a short-course on stakeholder interactions for students at Oregon State University and the larger science community.

朱莉·瓦诺（Julie Vano）博士被授予NSF地球科学博士后奖学金，以开发新的方法来了解未来的气候对西北太平洋地区当地水资源的影响。 温暖的气候可能会改变生态系统和人类社区的何时，何时以及多少水。 然而，不断努力在各种利益相关者需求之间保持平衡的水资源经理不确定如何将气候变化纳入其计划过程中。 这项研究通过开发两种新的方案计划方法来解决这一挑战，这些方法可以由水资源管理者和决策者更有效地使用。这些方法使用全球气候模型输出，水文模型和影响评估工具来构建未来氢化气候的场景。首先是从气候场景和水文敏感性开始，以了解径流变化的中心趋势和范围 - 通过建模实验来识别温度和降水的变化如何转化为流量流量变化的敏感性。第二个通过使用相同的建模框架来探索极端的径流，但在相反的方向上起作用：首先，资源管理人员确定关注度的指标，例如在某个量规上以高于75 kCF的流动，然后诊断出导致度量的水文因子，最后对气候驱动因素的连接进行了量化。 哥伦比亚河的洪水将是这种影响驱动的方法的测试案例。 这项研究将在俄勒冈州立大学进行，它将利用研究人员和利益相关者之间建立的网络。该项目的目的是：（1）提高对大气条件，水文过程，土地表面特性和本地水文影响之间的了解和联系，（2）开发新的方法来量化本地变化，利用使用水文景观敏感性概念与水文趋势的变化概念，并在中央趋势（渐进式变化）和极端事件之间以及（3）建立临时的研究中，以及（3）建立了临时的研究，并（3）建立了（3），（3）更好地评估未来水计划选择的可持续性。 在整个工作中，将继续努力通过利益相关者会议确保与更大的管理社区有关的结果，其经验将用于为俄勒冈州立大学和大型科学社区的学生提供有关利益相关者互动的短期。