Collaborative Research: Regional Variability in Future Temperature Stress to Coral Reefs in the Coral Triangle

合作研究：珊瑚三角区珊瑚礁未来温度压力的区域变化

• 批准号: 1234674
• 负责人: Enrique Curchitser
• 金额: $ 2.49万
• 依托单位: Rutgers University New Brunswick
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-10-01 至 2014-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1234674&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Regional; Variability; Future; Collaborative; Research; Regional; Variability; Future

The primary aim of this project is to test the oceanographic conditions that lead to regional differences in coral bleaching across the Coral Triangle, and to determine how changes in these conditions will influence coral bleaching patterns in the 21st Century. Degradation of coral reef ecosystems has accelerated over the past few decades due to increases in coral bleaching. Many uncertainties remain, however, regarding coral reef vulnerability to future bleaching conditions. This research will incorporate a high-resolution oceanographic model to simulate circulation and temperature patterns that promote coral bleaching, taking into account both the exposure of coral reefs to temperature stress as well as the sensitivity of those reefs to bleaching and their capacity to adapt to the temperature changes. The focus on the Coral Triangle is important because 1) it supports high marine biodiversity; 2) the complex bathymetry and oceanographic circulation are likely to provide significant insights into present and future conditions that affect coral reef vulnerability to increasing temperature; and 3) recent developments linking climate and regional circulation models can now resolve the complex oceanography in this area. A Regional Ocean Modeling System developed for the Coral Triangle (CT-ROMS) will be used to examine climate change effects on temperature and circulation patterns in the Coral Triangle. The modeling will include several 21st Century runs forced by climate model projections using scenarios developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report. Multiple bleaching algorithms that take into account different measures of heat stress and coral sensitivity to that stress will be evaluated for their ability to simulate observed bleaching patterns. The algorithms that best capture observed bleaching patterns will then be used to project bleaching in the 21st Century integrations. This will be the first project to undertake a comprehensive use of high resolution modeling to evaluate 1) the oceanographic conditions that determine regional variability in coral bleaching, and 2) how oceanographic changes will influence coral bleaching patterns in the future. We will be able to evaluate vulnerability to bleaching not only for reefs at the surface but also at depth, thus identifying whether deeper-water reefs should be considered sites for future conservation efforts. This project will also provide a more complete picture of coral reef vulnerability in the Coral Triangle, and improve our ability to identify refugia for coral reefs, which is a cornerstone for Marine Protected Area (MPA) design and management. In collaboration with The Nature Conservancy, this work will contribute to efforts of the Coral Triangle Initiative Program Support Team to both maximize the application of the scientific results in MPA design, and improve the capacity of local fisheries and their communities to adapt to climate change impacts on their marine resources.

该项目的主要目的是测试导致整个珊瑚三角形珊瑚漂白区域差异的海洋条件，并确定这些条件的变化如何影响21世纪的珊瑚漂白模式。 在过去的几十年中，珊瑚礁生态系统的降解由于珊瑚漂白的增加而加速了。但是，关于珊瑚礁对未来漂白条件的脆弱性仍然存在许多不确定性。这项研究将结合一个高分辨率的海洋学模型，以模拟循环和温度模式，以促进珊瑚漂白剂，同时考虑到珊瑚礁暴露于温度应激中的暴露，以及这些礁石对漂白的敏感性以及它们适应温度变化的能力。 对珊瑚三角的重点很重要，因为1）它支持高海洋生物多样性； 2）复杂的测深和海洋循环可能会为影响珊瑚礁脆弱性升高的当前和未来条件提供重要的见解； 3）连接气候和区域循环模型的最新发展现在可以解决该地区的复杂海洋学。 为珊瑚三角（CT-ROM）开发的区域海洋建模系统将用于检查气候变化对珊瑚三角的温度和循环模式的影响。该建模将包括使用为政府间气候变化（IPCC）评估报告开发的气候模型预测强迫的21世纪运行。将评估多种漂白算法，这些算法考虑到对该应力的不同措施和珊瑚敏感性的措施，以模拟观察到的漂白模式的能力。然后，最能捕获观察到的漂白模式的算法将用于在21世纪的整合中投射漂白。这将是第一个对高分辨率建模进行全面使用以评估的项目。1）确定珊瑚漂白区域变异性的海洋条件，以及2）海洋学变化将如何影响未来的珊瑚漂白模式。我们将能够评估不仅在表面上而且在深度上对礁石进行漂白的脆弱性，从而确定是否应将较深的水珊瑚礁视为未来保护工作的地点。该项目还将为珊瑚三角形中的珊瑚礁脆弱性提供更完整的图片，并提高我们识别珊瑚礁避难的能力，珊瑚礁是海洋保护区（MPA）设计和管理的基石。与自然保护协会合作，这项工作将有助于珊瑚三角计划计划支持团队的努力，以最大程度地利用科学成果在MPA设计中的应用，并提高当地渔业及其社区的能力，以适应气候变化对海洋资源的影响。