Type 2: A CRI-EaSM Collaborative proposal: Climate-to-humans: A study of urbanized coastal environments, their economics and vulnerability to climate change

类型 2：CRI-EaSM 合作提案：气候对人类：城市化沿海环境及其经济性和气候变化脆弱性研究

• 批准号: 1049088
• 负责人: Enrique Curchitser
• 金额: $ 231.45万
• 依托单位: Rutgers University New Brunswick
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-03-01 至 2016-02-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1049088&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Type; CRI; EaSM; Collaborative; proposal

A unified framework for studying global change in the Earth System allowing for scale interactions (up/down-scaling) and explicitly modeled dynamic feedbacks between the sub-components will be developed. The investigator team will build an Earth System Model (EaSM) that couples multi-scale ocean, atmosphere, watershed, biogeochemistry and human system models. The projected variability of the coupled environmental and human systems, represented with bio-economic and social network models, will be used to study management and other socio-economic decisions affecting future sustainable practices and the long-term evolution of the Earth System. The target for this study is the northeast U.S., a highly urbanized and densely populated region with approximately 33% of the US population hosting one the world's largest economies. It is also a region where vulnerability to global change is heightened, experiencing significant climate and ecosystem changes, shifting land use, and a complex western boundary current oceanic regime with significant implications to the northern hemisphere climate. Since many of the global change issues can be attributed to anthropogenic perturbations (e.g., a warming climate, ecosystem stress, declining biodiversity) the interface of the physical environment with human systems is central to this project.Intellectual merit: This project will use disciplinary and computational developments of the last 20 years to assemble, test and use an Earth System Model. The proposed model emerges from the realization that humans and their political, economic and social structures are an integral part of the Earth System dynamically interacting with its climate and ecosystems. Therefore, the ultimate goal of the proposed model is to be able to study present and future climate and ecosystems, accounting for both physical and anthropogenic forcings and the relevant human decision-making structures. To that end, this project aims to increase the skill of contemporary climate models by implementing a strategy that permits multi-scale interactions in the physics and biogeochemistry, improving upon known biases in the models and where necessary improve the dimensional representation of the physics and the ecosystems (e.g., the land-sea boundary). Broader impacts: The project aims to develop tools that can be used to study and address some of the biggest long-term challenges facing humans namely, a changing climate and limited natural resources. It achieves this first, by addressing known deficiencies in global climate model and second, by developing a model that includes economics and the human impact on the climate system. The target region for the study is the northeast U.S. and adjacent coastal ocean. This is a region with a significant population size and economic activity, which are particularly vulnerable to climate change. However, all the components of the proposed Earth System Model can be implemented in any region of interest. The resulting model will be available both to scientists for research purposes and to policy makers as a decision support tool. The framework for the model development is the community-based NCAR-Community Climate System Model. As such all development becomes part of the scientific community repository with significant technical support, education and outreach infrastructure. A significant outreach activity proposed is to hold a workshop for scientists and policy people with the main goal of teaching potential users of the model its capabilities with hands on tutorials, and particular examples developed during this work. This proposal will also support students and post-doctoral fellows during various stages of the work.Finally, this work brings together scientific communities that do not typically work together. The challenges facing society due to a changing climate, population growth and resource limitations are multi-faceted and it will take an interdisciplinary approach to study, mitigate and solve them. Arguably, the biggest impact of this work is the assembly of scientists with varied interests and disciplines ready to work towards a common goal.

研究地球系统中全球变化的统一框架将开发出尺度相互作用（上/下刻度）和在子组件之间进行明确建模的动态反馈。研究人员团队将建立一个地球系统模型（EASM），该模型将多尺度的海洋，大气，分水岭，生物地球化学和人类系统模型融合在一起。以生物经济和社会网络模型代表的耦合环境和人类系统的预计变异性将用于研究管理和其他影响未来可持续实践以及地球系统长期演变的社会经济决定。这项研究的目标是美国东北部，这是一个高度城市化且人口稠密的地区，约有33％的美国人口拥有全球最大的经济体。它也是一个脆弱的全球变化的区域，经历了重大的气候和生态系统变化，土地使用的转移以及复杂的西部边界当前海洋政权，对北半球气候产生了重大影响。由于许多全球变化问题可以归因于人为扰动（例如，温暖的气候，生态系统压力，生物多样性下降），物理环境与人类系统的界面是该项目的核心。提出的模型来自于意识到人类及其政治，经济和社会结构是地球系统不可或缺的一部分，与其气候和生态系统动态互动。因此，所提出的模型的最终目标是能够研究当前和未来的气候和生态系统，考虑到物理和人为强迫以及相关的人类决策结构。为此，该项目旨在通过实施允许在物理和生物地球化学中进行多尺度相互作用的策略来提高当代气候模型的技能，从而改善模型中的已知偏见，并在必要的情况下改善物理和生态系统的维度表示（例如，陆地边界）。更广泛的影响：该项目旨在开发可用于研究和应对人类面临的一些最大长期挑战的工具，即气候变化和自然资源有限。它首先通过解决全球气候模型中的已知缺陷，其次通过开发一个包括经济学和人类对气候系统影响的模型来实现这一目标。该研究的目标区域是美国东北部和邻近的沿海海洋。这是一个人口规模和经济活动显着的地区，特别容易受到气候变化的影响。但是，拟议的地球系统模型的所有组成部分都可以在任何感兴趣的地区实施。由此产生的模型将出于研究目的和决策者作为决策支持工具提供。模型开发的框架是基于社区的NCAR社区气候系统模型。这样，所有发展就成为科学社区存储库的一部分，并具有大量的技术支持，教育和外展基础设施。提出的一项重要的外展活动是为科学家和政策人员举办一个研讨会，其主要目标是通过教程教授该模型的潜在用户其能力，并在这项工作中开发了特定的例子。该建议还将在工作的各个阶段支持学生和博士后研究员。在本文中，这项工作将通常不工作的科学社区汇集在一起​​。由于气候变化，人口增长和资源限制而造成的挑战是多方面的，这将采取跨学科的方法来研究，减轻和解决它们。可以说，这项工作的最大影响是科学家组装，具有各种兴趣和学科的科学家，准备朝着共同的目标努力。