Gains from Economic Integration: Theory and Evidence from Agricultural Markets

经济一体化的收益：农业市场的理论和证据

• 批准号: 1227635
• 负责人: Dave Donaldson
• 金额: $ 37.51万
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-09-01 至 2018-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1227635&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Gains; Economic; Integration; Theory; Evidence

AbstractProposal Title: Gains from Economic Integration: Theory and Evidence from Agricultural MarketsProposal Number: SES - 1227635 Principal Investigator: Dave Donaldson How large are the gains from economic integration? Since researchers never observe markets that are both closed and open at the same time, the fundamental challenge in answering this question lies in predicting how local markets, either countries or regions, would behave under counterfactual scenarios in which they suddenly become more or less integrated with the rest of the world. This project will develop a new approach in order to obtain knowledge of such counterfactual scenarios.The central idea is to focus on agriculture, a sector of the economy in which scientific knowledge of how essential inputs map into outputs is uniquely well understood. As a consequence of this knowledge, agronomists are able to predict how productive a given parcel of land would be were it to be used to grow any one of a set of crops. The approach of this project combines these agronomic predictions about both factual and counterfactual technologies with a general equilibrium model in which heterogeneous parcels of land are allocated to multiple crops in multiple local markets under perfect competition.To date this research has focused on applying this new approach to the context of U.S. agricultural markets from 1880 to 2002. A combination of agronomic data from the Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ) project and historical data from the U.S. Census identifies the spatial distribution of crop prices across U.S. counties over time, while still allowing for unobserved crop-county-year specific productivity shocks. These estimates of local prices further identify changes in trade costs over time and, in turn, the gains from market integration over the period from 1880 to 2002. Ongoing work in this project applies a similar approach to study global agricultural trade reform. Despite its vital importance for many developing countries, there is relatively little work on trade in agricultural goods. The new approach developed here is potentially well suited to fill this gap by offering a flexible, tractable, and scientifically-informed framework for quantitative work on this topic. The goal will be to improve forecasts of how the removal of agricultural trade policies may affect the prices and trade flows of agricultural goods, as well as the welfare of those who produce and consume these goods. Such considerations are at the heart of the World Trade Organization's Doha Round.A second area of ongoing work focuses on the economic consequences of climate change. Since agronomic models (such as the GAEZ model) can be re-computed under a wide range of climate change scenarios, the new methodology developed here also has the potential to shed new light on how countries will adapt to climate change in the agricultural sector through changes in their output mix and through the ability to trade with other countries.

摘要权益标题：经济整合的收益：农业市场杂货的理论和证据编号：SES -1227635首席研究员：Dave Donaldson从经济整合带来了多大的收益？由于研究人员从未观察到同时关闭和开放的市场，因此回答这个问题的根本挑战在于预测当地市场（无论是国家还是地区）如何在反事实场景中表现出突然或多或少地与世界其他地区融合在一起的情况。该项目将开发一种新的方法来了解这种反事实情况。核心思想是专注于农业，这是一个经济领域的领域，在该领域中，科学知识对基本输入如何映射到输出中的科学知识是完全理解的。由于这一知识，农艺师能够预测给定土地的生产力将如何用来种植任何一种农作物。该项目的方法结合了有关事实和反事实技术的这些农艺学预测与一般平衡模型，其中在完美竞争下，在多个本地市场中，在多个本地市场中分配了土地的多种土地。 （Gaez）来自美国人口普查的项目和历史数据随着时间的推移确定了美国各县农作物价格的空间分布，同时仍然允许未观察到的农作物县特定的特定生产力冲击。这些对本地价格的估计进一步确定了贸易成本的变化，从1880年到2002年，从市场整合中的收益。该项目的持续工作采用类似的方法来研究全球农业贸易改革。 尽管对许多发展中国家的重要性至关重要，但农业用品的贸易工作相对较少。这里开发的新方法可能非常适合填补这一空白，通过提供一个灵活，易处理且科学意识的框架，用于有关该主题的定量工作。 目的是改善对农业贸易政策如何影响农业产品的价格和贸易流程的预测，以及那些生产和消费这些商品的人的福利。这些考虑因素是世界贸易组织Doha Round的核心。正在进行的工作的第二个领域着重于气候变化的经济后果。 由于可以在广泛的气候变化情景下重新计算农艺模型（例如Gaez模型），因此此处开发的新方法也有可能使各国如何通过改变其产出组合以及与其他国家的能力来适应农业部门的气候变化。