IRFP: GENIE Modeling of Paleogene Hyperthermals

IRFP：古近纪高温的 GENIE 模型

• 批准号: 1159100
• 负责人: Sandra Turner
• 金额: $ 14.78万
• 依托单位: Kirtland Sandra E
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Fellowship Award
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-06-01 至 2016-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1159100&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: IRFP; GENIE; Modeling; Paleogene; Hyperthermals

The International Research Fellowship Program enables U.S. scientists and engineers to conduct nine to twenty-four months of research abroad. The program?s awards provide opportunities for joint research, and the use of unique or complementary facilities, expertise, and experimental conditions abroad. This award will support a twenty-four month research fellowship by Dr. Sandra Kirtland Turner to work with Dr. Andy Ridgwell at the University of Bristol in Bristol, United Kingdom.By the end of the 21st century, the continued build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere means that radiative forcing of Earth's climate will surpass anything seen on Earth for tens of millions of years. Numerous abrupt warming events (hyperthermals) that occurred in the warm, 'greenhouse' climate before ~40 Ma provide our best analogs for future climate change. During these events, there is evidence for rapid injections of massive amounts of carbon into the oceans and atmosphere, accompanied by intense warming and ocean acidification. Characteristics of these events, including their regular occurrence and fast rate of recovery, suggest gaps in understanding of carbon cycle instabilities and feedbacks in a warm climate. To fully exploit the potential of these events to inform Earth's predicted long-term response to fossil fuel emissions, it is critical to combine datasets that reconstruct these events with models that test hypotheses regarding the controls on their occurrence. This research uses an Earth system model of intermediate complexity called GENIE (Grid-Enabled Integrated Earth system model) to test key questions regarding the mechanisms responsible for initiating and terminating hyperthermal events on a greenhouse Earth. The first objective is to use the GENIE model to assess the fidelity of individual paleoclimatic records in recording abrupt climate transitions. This exercise involves the development of a methodology to improve estimates of the size of these events by incorporating and systematically assessing the biases that influence preservation of event size and shape in the geologic record. The second objective is to add key model capabilities to GENIE that will 1) enable study of how variations in Earth's orbit impact the timing and size of hyperthermal events and 2) test the role of carbon sources that are not yet explicitly included in existing carbon cycle-climate models. In addition to her research, Dr. Kirtland Turner is interested in the broader social and political implications of paleoclimatology and carbon cycle-climate modeling. She hopes to use results from her reconstruction and modeling of hyperthermal events to educate the public and policymakers about the true lifetime of fossil fuel CO2 emissions and characteristics of a warm world. Finally, this research will help develop new international collaborations between the PI, collaborators at Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, CA (Dr. Richard Norris? research group), and Dr. Ridgwell?s research group at the University of Bristol, U.K.

国际研究奖学金计划使美国的科学家和工程师能够在国外进行九至二十四个月的研究。该计划的奖项为联合研究提供了机会，以及在国外使用独特或补充设施，专业知识和实验条件。该奖项将支持桑德拉·基尔特兰·特纳（Sandra Kirtland Turner）博士的二十四个月研究奖学金，与英国布里斯托尔布里斯托尔大学布里斯托尔大学的安迪·里奇韦尔（Andy Ridgwell）博士合作。在21世纪末，在21世纪末，大气中的温室气体持续积累，这意味着地球气候的辐射强迫将在地球上看到地球上的任何东西，几年的千里是千里之际。在〜40 mA之前，发生在温暖的“温室”气候中发生的许多突然的变暖事件（高温）为未来的气候变化提供了我们最好的类似物。在这些事件中，有证据表明，迅速注入大量碳和大气中，并伴随着强烈的变暖和海洋酸化。这些事件的特征，包括它们的常规发生和快速的恢复速率，表明在温暖气候下了解碳循环不稳定性和反馈方面的差距。为了充分利用这些事件的潜力，以告知地球对化石燃料排放的长期反应，将重建这些事件与模型相结合的数据集结合起来至关重要。这项研究使用了称为Genie（支持网格的集成地球系统模型）的地球系统模型，以测试有关负责在温室地球上启动和终止高温事件的机制的关键问题。第一个目的是使用精灵模型来评估单个古气候记录在记录突然的气候转变中的保真度。该练习涉及开发一种方法，以通过合并和系统地评估影响地质记录中事件大小和形状的偏见来提高这些事件大小的估计值。第二个目标是将关键模型能力添加到Genie中，这将使1）能够研究地球轨道中的变化如何影响高温事件的时间和大小，并且2）测试碳源尚未明确包含在现有的碳循环气候模型中的碳源的作用。除研究外，Kirtland Turner博士还对古气候学和碳循环气候建模的更广泛的社会和政治影响感兴趣。她希望使用她的重建和对高温事件的建模的结果来教育公众和决策者关于化石燃料二氧化碳二氧化碳排放和温暖世界的特征的真实寿命。最后，这项研究将有助于开发加利福尼亚州拉霍亚的Scripps海洋学合作者PI之间的新国际合作（Richard Norris博士研究小组）和英国布里斯托尔大学的Ridgwell博士研究小组。