IRFP: GENIE Modeling of Paleogene Hyperthermals

IRFP：古近纪高温的 GENIE 模型

• 批准号: 1159100
• 负责人: Sandra Turner
• 金额: $ 14.78万
• 依托单位: Kirtland Sandra E
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Fellowship Award
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-06-01 至 2016-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1159100&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: IRFP; GENIE; Modeling; Paleogene; Hyperthermals

The International Research Fellowship Program enables U.S. scientists and engineers to conduct nine to twenty-four months of research abroad. The program?s awards provide opportunities for joint research, and the use of unique or complementary facilities, expertise, and experimental conditions abroad. This award will support a twenty-four month research fellowship by Dr. Sandra Kirtland Turner to work with Dr. Andy Ridgwell at the University of Bristol in Bristol, United Kingdom.By the end of the 21st century, the continued build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere means that radiative forcing of Earth's climate will surpass anything seen on Earth for tens of millions of years. Numerous abrupt warming events (hyperthermals) that occurred in the warm, 'greenhouse' climate before ~40 Ma provide our best analogs for future climate change. During these events, there is evidence for rapid injections of massive amounts of carbon into the oceans and atmosphere, accompanied by intense warming and ocean acidification. Characteristics of these events, including their regular occurrence and fast rate of recovery, suggest gaps in understanding of carbon cycle instabilities and feedbacks in a warm climate. To fully exploit the potential of these events to inform Earth's predicted long-term response to fossil fuel emissions, it is critical to combine datasets that reconstruct these events with models that test hypotheses regarding the controls on their occurrence. This research uses an Earth system model of intermediate complexity called GENIE (Grid-Enabled Integrated Earth system model) to test key questions regarding the mechanisms responsible for initiating and terminating hyperthermal events on a greenhouse Earth. The first objective is to use the GENIE model to assess the fidelity of individual paleoclimatic records in recording abrupt climate transitions. This exercise involves the development of a methodology to improve estimates of the size of these events by incorporating and systematically assessing the biases that influence preservation of event size and shape in the geologic record. The second objective is to add key model capabilities to GENIE that will 1) enable study of how variations in Earth's orbit impact the timing and size of hyperthermal events and 2) test the role of carbon sources that are not yet explicitly included in existing carbon cycle-climate models. In addition to her research, Dr. Kirtland Turner is interested in the broader social and political implications of paleoclimatology and carbon cycle-climate modeling. She hopes to use results from her reconstruction and modeling of hyperthermal events to educate the public and policymakers about the true lifetime of fossil fuel CO2 emissions and characteristics of a warm world. Finally, this research will help develop new international collaborations between the PI, collaborators at Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, CA (Dr. Richard Norris? research group), and Dr. Ridgwell?s research group at the University of Bristol, U.K.

国际研究奖学金计划使美国科学家和工程师能够在国外进行九到二十四个月的研究。该项目的奖项提供了联合研究以及使用国外独特或互补的设施、专业知识和实验条件的机会。该奖项将支持 Sandra Kirtland Turner 博士与英国布里斯托尔大学的 Andy Ridgwell 博士进行为期 24 个月的研究奖学金。到 21 世纪末，温室气体的持续建设大气中的气体意味着地球气候的辐射强迫将超过地球上数千万年的任何辐射强迫。大约 40 Ma 之前，在温暖的“温室”气候中发生的许多突然变暖事件（高温）为我们未来的气候变化提供了最好的类比。在这些事件期间，有证据表明大量碳迅速注入海洋和大气中，并伴随着剧烈的变暖和海洋酸化。这些事件的特征，包括它们的定期发生和快速恢复速度，表明对温暖气候下碳循环不稳定性和反馈的理解存在差距。为了充分利用这些事件的潜力来预测地球对化石燃料排放的长期反应，至关重要的是将重建这些事件的数据集与测试有关其发生控制的假设的模型结合起来。这项研究使用称为 GENIE（网格支持的集成地球系统模型）的中等复杂性地球系统模型来测试有关温室地球上高温事件启动和终止机制的关键问题。第一个目标是使用 GENIE 模型来评估单个古气候记录在记录气候突变时的保真度。这项工作涉及开发一种方法，通过纳入和系统地评估影响地质记录中事件规模和形状保存的偏差，改进对这些事件规模的估计。第二个目标是为 GENIE 添加关键模型功能，这将 1) 能够研究地球轨道的变化如何影响高温事件的时间和规模，2) 测试尚未明确包含在现有碳循环中的碳源的作用-气候模型。除了研究之外，科特兰·特纳博士还对古气候学和碳循环气候模型的更广泛的社会和政治影响感兴趣。她希望利用高温事件的重建和建模结果来教育公众和政策制定者有关化石燃料二氧化碳排放的真实寿命和温暖世界的特征。最后，这项研究将有助于在 PI、加利福尼亚州拉霍亚斯克里普斯海洋学研究所（理查德·诺里斯博士研究小组）和英国布里斯托大学 Ridgwell 博士研究小组之间开展新的国际合作。