Collaborative Research: Tropical Cyclones in a Warming Climate: Lessons from Model Simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum and Holocene

合作研究：气候变暖中的热带气旋：末次盛冰期和全新世模型模拟的教训

• 批准号: 1063837
• 负责人: Joseph Galewsky
• 金额: $ 25.46万
• 依托单位: University of New Mexico
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-04-15 至 2017-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1063837&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Tropical; Cyclones; Warming

This collaborative project uses numerical simulations to study the likely behavior of tropical cyclones (TCs, which include Atlantic hurricanes, Pacific typhoons, and cycones in the Indian Ocean), at the height of the last ice age (about 21,000 years ago) and during the mid-holocene warm period of about 6,000 years ago. Much attention has been devoted to understanding the impact on TCs of the warming of the world's oceans over recent decades and the likely response of TCs to future global warming. This study seeks to further understanding of the impact of climate change on TCs by looking backward to past climates which are comparably different from today's climate, although in different ways. Four specific questions are addressed: 1) How do the factors that influence tropical cyclone genesis vary under LGM and mid-holocene forcings? 2) Are there significant variations in how different models resolve these large-scale factors? Which changes appear attributable to model variability and which to variations in external forcing? 3) How do the TC-like vortices found in climate models change in LGM and mid-holocene simulations when compared to preindustrial or present-day conditions? 4) How does a higher resolution, regional model's simulation of a paleoclimate environment handle genesis? How do storm counts and track densities vary as the climate forcing changes? The research is based on preliminary results which find evidence that the climate of the last ice age may have been relatively favorable for TC development in some regions, despite the generally colder sea surface temperatures worldwide. The work has broader impacts in the scientific community as it will inform research into the emerging science of "paleotempestology", the interdisciplinary study of the behavior of TCs and other storms in past climates. The work will also inform efforts to understand the impact of global warming on landfalling TCs including hurricanes along the US coastline. In addition, the work will fund and train a graduate student and a postdoctoral researchers, thereby providing support and training for the next generation of scientists.

该协作项目使用数值模拟来研究热带气旋的可能行为（TCS，包括大西洋飓风，太平洋台风和印度洋的Cycones），在最后一个冰河时代（大约21，000年前）以及大约6,000年前的中世时期的最新冰河时代（大约21,000年前）。在近几十年来，已经大大关注了对世界海洋变暖的影响，以及TCS对未来全球变暖的可能反应。这项研究旨在通过向后的气候与当今气候有很大不同的气候来进一步了解气候变化对TC的影响，尽管以不同的方式。解决了四个具体问题：1）在LGM和中世锻造下，影响热带气旋起源的因素如何变化？ 2）不同模型如何解决这些大规模因素有很大差异？哪些变化似乎归因于模型变异性以及在外部强迫中的变化？ 3）与工业化前或当前条件相比，在气候模型中发现的类似TC样涡流会如何变化？ 4）更高分辨率，区域模型对古气候环境的模拟如何处理起源？风暴计数和跟踪密度如何随着气候强迫变化而变化？这项研究基于初步结果，发现证据表明，尽管全世界的海面温度通常更低，但最后一个冰河时代的气候可能对某些地区的TC发展相对有利。这项工作对科学界产生了更大的影响，因为它将为新兴的“古植物学”科学进行研究，这是对过去气候中TCS和其他风暴行为的跨学科研究。这项工作还将为了解全球变暖对登陆的TC的影响提供努力，包括美国海岸线飓风。此外，这项工作将资助并培训研究生和博士后研究人员，从而为下一代科学家提供支持和培训。