Collaborative Research: Investigating Decadal Climate Predictability and Climate Impacts (IDCPI) on the Western United States

合作研究：调查美国西部的十年气候可预测性和气候影响（IDCPI）

基本信息

批准号：
1049238
负责人：
Lowell Stott
金额：
$ 153.89万
依托单位：
University of Southern California
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Continuing Grant
财政年份：
2011
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2011-04-01 至 2016-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1049238&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research Investigating Decadal Climate

项目摘要

This project supports a team of researchers in a major research thrust in decadal climate prediction entitled "Investigating Decadal Climate Predictability and Climate Impacts (IDCPI) on the Western US." The IDCPI is an interdisciplinary effort to use instrumental records of climate and paleoclimate data to assess the skill level of Earth System Models (EaSM) to forecast decadal climate variability. Generally, the research team will focus on the region of the western Unites States because both historic and prehistoric records document recurrent decadal-scale hydroclimate variability, including repeated drought, which has been attributed to Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies. Specifically, the team will use models, in combination with an isotope "fingerprinting" methodology, to: 1) assess the ability of Earth System models (global and regional models) to accurately simulate the atmospheric response to SST forcing; 2) retrospectively investigate whether models can predict drought in advance and estimate how long the events will persist; 3) assess whether a future drought in the western U.S. is currently predictable with existing models; and 4) develop future hydrologic predictions with uncertainty estimates for the western U.S. where models exhibit skill.This project has the potential to improve the reliability of regional climate predictions in the southwest Unites States. In doing so, the research would be of importance to resource managers and policy makers. The project also provides a unique cohort approach to the training and mentoring of post doctoral scholars associated with the collaborating institutions.

该项目支持一组研究人员进行一项重大研究，以纪念际气候预测，题为“调查际气候可预测性和气候影响（IDCPI）对美国西部”。 IDCPI是使用气候和古气候数据的工具记录来评估地球系统模型（EASM）的技能水平以预测衰减气候变化的能力。通常，研究小组将重点关注西方团结国家的地区，因为历史记录和史前记录都记录了复发的十年级氢气候变异性，包括重复的干旱，这归因于海面温度（SST）异常。具体而言，团队将使用模型与同位素“指纹”方法结合使用：1）评估地球系统模型（全球和区域模型）的能力，以准确模拟对SST强迫的大气响应； 2）回顾性研究模型是否可以提前预测干旱并估计事件将持续多长时间； 3）评估现有模型目前在美国西部的未来干旱是否可以预测； 4）在美国西部表现出技巧的不确定性估计中发展未来的水文预测。该项目有可能提高西南团结州区域气候预测的可靠性。这样一来，这项研究对于资源经理和政策制定者来说将很重要。该项目还提供了一种独特的队列方法，用于培训和指导与协作机构相关的博士学位学者。