Collaborative Research: Investigating Decadal Climate Predictability and Climate Impacts (IDCPI) on the Western United States

合作研究：调查美国西部的十年气候可预测性和气候影响（IDCPI）

基本信息

批准号：
1049238
负责人：
Lowell Stott
金额：
$ 153.89万
依托单位：
University of Southern California
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Continuing Grant
财政年份：
2011
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2011-04-01 至 2016-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1049238&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research Investigating Decadal Climate

项目摘要

This project supports a team of researchers in a major research thrust in decadal climate prediction entitled "Investigating Decadal Climate Predictability and Climate Impacts (IDCPI) on the Western US." The IDCPI is an interdisciplinary effort to use instrumental records of climate and paleoclimate data to assess the skill level of Earth System Models (EaSM) to forecast decadal climate variability. Generally, the research team will focus on the region of the western Unites States because both historic and prehistoric records document recurrent decadal-scale hydroclimate variability, including repeated drought, which has been attributed to Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies. Specifically, the team will use models, in combination with an isotope "fingerprinting" methodology, to: 1) assess the ability of Earth System models (global and regional models) to accurately simulate the atmospheric response to SST forcing; 2) retrospectively investigate whether models can predict drought in advance and estimate how long the events will persist; 3) assess whether a future drought in the western U.S. is currently predictable with existing models; and 4) develop future hydrologic predictions with uncertainty estimates for the western U.S. where models exhibit skill.This project has the potential to improve the reliability of regional climate predictions in the southwest Unites States. In doing so, the research would be of importance to resource managers and policy makers. The project also provides a unique cohort approach to the training and mentoring of post doctoral scholars associated with the collaborating institutions.

该项目支持研究人员团队进行十年气候预测的主要研究方向，题为“调查美国西部的十年气候可预测性和气候影响（IDCPI）”。 IDCPI 是一项跨学科的工作，旨在使用气候和古气候数据的仪器记录来评估地球系统模型 (EaSM) 的技能水平，以预测十年间的气候变化。一般来说，研究小组将重点关注美国西部地区，因为历史和史前记录都记录了周期性的十年尺度水文气候变化，包括由于海面温度（SST）异常而导致的反复干旱。具体来说，该团队将使用模型结合同位素“指纹”方法来：1）评估地球系统模型（全球和区域模型）准确模拟大气对海温强迫的响应的能力； 2）回顾性研究模型是否可以提前预测干旱并估计事件将持续多长时间； 3）评估目前是否可以利用现有模型预测美国西部未来的干旱； 4) 为美国西部地区开发未来的水文预测和不确定性估计，这些地区的模型表现出了技能。该项目有潜力提高美国西南部区域气候预测的可靠性。在此过程中，这项研究对于资源管理者和政策制定者来说非常重要。该项目还提供了一种独特的队列方法来培训和指导与合作机构相关的博士后学者。