Collaborative Research: Improved Regional and Decadal Predictions of the Carbon Cycle

合作研究：改进碳循环的区域和十年预测

• 批准号: 1049033
• 负责人: Natalie Mahowald
• 金额: $ 106.4万
• 依托单位: Cornell University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-04-01 至 2017-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1049033&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Improved; Regional; Decadal

Intellectual meritThe primary goal of this project is to improve the decadal and regional projections of the carbon cycle in the Community Earth System Model. There currently is substantial spread in the predictions of atmospheric carbon among the full complexity climate-carbon models, even with the same anthropogenic forcings. This spread in predictions of the carbon uptake by the land and ocean result in large differences in climate forcing, and thus climate impacts. The next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the first that will include the carbon cycle for all models, and thus the carbon cycle models have not yet been subject to the same rigorous analysis that the physical models have been exposed to. This project will jump-start the process of understanding and improving the carbon cycle in the Community Earth System Model. The goal is to compile datasets, prepare methodologies for comparisons and develop metrics that will facilitate improvements in the models and reduce the uncertainty in future climate projections of the carbon cycle for earth system models. In addition, the PIs will use these datasets to answer fundamental questions about how the carbon cycle responds on regional and decadal scales, and how it will evolve in the future. This project includes experts in modeling and model/data comparisons for the land, ocean and atmosphere, which is required for the cross-disciplinary challenge of improving simulations of regional and decadal scale carbon fluxes. Broader impactsThis project includes the compilation and publishing of important datasets and metrics that can be used to improve carbon flux predictions. It will result in improvements in the publically available Community Earth System Model. The project includes the education of 4 graduate students, and 2 undergraduate students in cross-disciplinary studies of the carbon cycle. It also includes outreach programs targeted at temporary exhibits at museums, and K-12 teacher development programs.

知识分子值得该项目的主要目标是改善社区地球系统模型中碳循环的十年和区域预测。 目前，即使具有相同的人为强迫，目前在全部复杂性气候碳模型中的大气碳的预测中存在大量扩散。这在土地和海洋对碳吸收的预测中的传播导致气候强迫的差异很大，从而产生了气候影响。下一个关于气候变化的政府间小组是所有模型的碳循环，因此碳循环模型尚未受到与物理模型所暴露的严格分析的约束。该项目将启动理解和改善社区地球系统模型中碳循环的过程。 目的是编译数据集，准备比较方法并开发指标，以促进模型的改进，并减少地球系统模型碳循环的未来气候预测的不确定性。此外，PI将使用这些数据集回答有关碳循环如何在区域和十年尺度上响应的基本问题，以及未来的发展。该项目包括对土地，海洋和气氛进行建模和模型/数据比较的专家，这是改善区域和衰老规模碳通量模拟的跨学科挑战所必需的。 该项目更广泛的影响包括可用于改善碳通量预测的重要数据集和指标的汇编和发布。 这将改善公开可用的社区地球系统模型。 该项目包括对4名研究生的教育，以及2名本科生，从事碳周期的跨学科研究。 它还包括针对博物馆临时展览的推出计划和K-12教师发展计划。