Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: Industry Clusters, Trade, and Growth

经济学博士论文研究：产业集群、贸易与增长

• 批准号: 0962545
• 负责人: Donald Davis
• 金额: $ 0.46万
• 依托单位: Columbia University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-02-15 至 2011-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0962545&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Economics; Industry

Industry Clusters, Trade, and GrowthEconomists have long recognized that a central effect of trade is to change the set of industries in an economy. When industries are heterogeneous, either in their potential for productivity growth, or in their ability to generate spillovers that improve productivity in other industries, these changes will affect a country's growth rate. Simple observation, as well as recent empirical evidence, suggests that such heterogeneity exists to a significant degree. The goal of this project is to understand how trade affects growth through its affect on the composition of industries in an economy. Particular attention will be paid to the role of industry clusters, by which is meant groups of industries where each industry in the cluster has significant productivity spillovers to other cluster industries.The PI addresses this problem using both theoretical and empirical tools. The theoretical contribution is fairly well developed. The results suggest that trade may increase the growth rate of all trading economies, if it concentrates industries or strengthens clusters. Conversely, trade may decrease growth in all trading economies if it weakens industry clusters. These results are new and contradict previous studies, such as those by Young (1991) and Matsuyama (1992), who apply more restrictive and less realistic assumptions. An important implication is that the effect of trade on growth depends crucially on the initial set of industries in an economy and the pattern of industry clusters. The empirical portion of this project, which is still in its infancy, involves constructing a new data set describing the evolution of the economy of Lancashire County, England, from the Industrial Revolution to the present. Lancashire County, birthplace of the industrial revolution, is interesting as a clear case of successful trade-driven and cluster-based development. Another reason for choosing this case is the wealth of data available. These data will be used to illustrate the mechanisms described by the theory, and to test its predictions.Intellectual MeritThe intellectual merit of this project rests on the importance of the question it addresses. As the world becomes more globalized the decisions countries make regarding trade policy will become more and more important. The recent experience of East Asia suggests that trade can be a powerful engine for growth, yet in other cases we see that trade need not lead to growth. The PI's work provides a new analytical framework for assessing the effects of trade and suggests how trade, technology, and industrial policies can be used to harness the power of trade to create growth. Furthermore, the results suggest that when trading partners coordinate to design proper policies, all trading partners can benefit. Broader ImpactsThe broader impacts of this work will be felt through its impact on trade policies, and related technology and industrial policies. With nearly every country involved in significant trading relationships, any knowledge that increases the ability of countries to enact trade policies that increase growth will have wide applicability. Once completed, the PI intends to disseminate the results both through academic publication and through channels focused on reaching policymakers.

行业集群，贸易和成长经济学家长期以来已经认识到，贸易的核心作用是改变经济中的行业。当行业是异质的，要么具有生产率增长的潜力，要么具有提高其他行业生产率的溢出能力，这些变化将影响一个国家的增长率。简单的观察以及最近的经验证据表明，这种异质性在很大程度上存在。该项目的目的是了解贸易如何通过对经济中行业组成的影响来影响增长。将特别关注行业集群的作用，这意味着集群中每个行业对其他集群行业的生产力溢出都大量溢出。PI使用理论和经验工具解决了这个问题。理论贡献相当好。结果表明，如果贸易集中或加强集群，贸易可能会增加所有贸易经济体的增长率。相反，如果贸易削弱行业集群，贸易可能会降低所有贸易经济体的增长。这些结果是新的，并且与以前的研究相矛盾，例如Young（1991）和Matsuyama（1992）的研究，他们采用了更加限制性和更现实的假设。一个重要的含义是，贸易对增长的影响至关重要取决于经济中的初始行业和行业集群模式。该项目的经验部分仍处于起步阶段，涉及构建一个新的数据集，描述了英格兰兰开夏郡县经济的演变，从工业革命到现在。兰开夏郡（Lancashire County）是工业革命的发源地，这是成功基于商业和集群发展的明显案例。选择这种情况的另一个原因是可用的数据丰富。这些数据将用于说明理论所描述的机制，并测试其预测。智能值得该项目的智力优点取决于它解决的问题的重要性。随着世界变得越来越全球化，国家关于贸易政策的决策将变得越来越重要。东亚最近的经验表明，贸易可能是增长的强大引擎，但是在其他情况下，我们看到贸易不必导致增长。 PI的工作提供了一个新的分析框架来评估贸易的影响，并建议如何使用贸易，技术和工业政策来利用贸易的力量创造增长。此外，结果表明，交易合作伙伴协调设计适当的政策时，所有交易伙伴都可以受益。通过对贸易政策以及相关技术和工业政策的影响，将感受到这项工作的更广泛影响。由于几乎每个国家都参与了重大的贸易关系，因此任何提高国家制定增长贸易政策能力的知识都将具有广泛的适用性。 PI完成后，打算通过学术出版物和专注于达成决策者的渠道来传播结果。