Investment: Theory, Estimates, and Public Policy

投资：理论、估计和公共政策

• 批准号: 0962219
• 负责人: Christopher House
• 金额: $ 36.43万
• 依托单位: Regents of the University of Michigan - Ann Arbor
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-05-01 至 2014-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0962219&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Investment; Theory; Estimates; Public; Policy

Project SummaryInvestment: Theory, Estimates, and Public PolicyThis project will analyze the determinants of investment spending. It will quantify several key determinants and study how they affect investment both in theory and in practice. The proposal features two related lines of research. The first research component is an empirical analysis of investment at a disaggregated level. The second component develops and estimates a structural model of investment. The two research components are complementary. The empirical results are used to inform, test, and estimate parameters of the structural model. In turn, the structural model provides important insights into the effects of recent and future investment policies. The first part of the project presents an empirical analysis of investment. This research establishes key empirical facts that investment theories should match. It also evaluates the empirical success of several existing theories. Specifically, using a panel of type-specific investment data, four prominent empirical issues are studied: (1) the cyclicality of pre-tax and after-tax investment prices; (2) the role of uncertainty in investment spending; (3) the response of investment to tax subsidies and (4) the response of automobile production and prices to the Consumer Assistance to Recycle and Save Act of 2009, also known as "cash for clunkers.?" The primary data sets used are the BEA underlying detail tables for investment, recently available measures of economic uncertainty, and an updated, revised set of type-specific investment tax subsidies.The second part of the proposal presents a structural equilibrium model of investment. The theoretical framework builds on previous studies which feature fixed adjustment costs at the microlevel. The model adds to this research by introducing a new investment timing friction not featured in earlier work. The timing friction allows firm-level heterogeneity to have a substantial influence on equilibrium investment dynamics. This is a ignificant extension of the research on fixed costs and firm-level heterogeneity since important effects of such heterogeneity are not present in earlier models. As a result, the proposed framework will provide a better guide to analyzing investment policy. The magnitude of the timing friction will be estimated with type-specific investment data. The empirical work in the first part of the proposal will provide several parameters to assess the fit of the theoretical model and to develop estimates of the effects of specific policy changes.Summary of intellectual merit. The project will develop a modern model of investment that incorporates key frictions that imply important firm-level heterogeneity. While the model incorporates many complex modern features, it is also analytically tractable and yields sharp testable predictions. Hence, this research will allow modern investment models to confront the data in a meaningful way and to be used to evaluate specific policies.Summary of broader implications. This research will provide both theoretical and empirical guidance for government policies designed either to affect overall economic activity by stimulating investment or to promote investment to increase economic growth. Additionally, the results of this analysis will be valuable to studying business cycles by shedding light on how various shocks affect investment activity.

项目摘要投资：理论，估计和公共政策本项目将分析投资支出的决定因素。它将量化几个关键决定因素，并研究它们如何影响理论和实践中的投资。该提案具有两条相关的研究行。第一个研究组成部分是对分类水平的投资的经验分析。第二个组成部分开发并估计了投资的结构模型。这两个研究组件是互补的。经验结果用于为结构模型的参数提供信息，测试和估计参数。反过来，结构模型为最近和未来投资政策的影响提供了重要的见解。该项目的第一部分介绍了对投资的经验分析。这项研究确定了投资理论应该与之匹配的关键经验事实。它还评估了几种现有理论的经验成功。具体而言，使用一系列特定类型的投资数据，研究了四个突出的经验问题：（1）税前和税后投资价格的周期性； （2）不确定性在投资支出中的作用； （3）投资对税收补贴的反应以及（4）汽车生产和价格对消费者援助的回应，以回收和节省的法案，也称为“笨拙的现金？”。所使用的主要数据集是BEA的基础详细信息表，最近可用的经济不确定性措施以及经过更新的，经过修订的特定类型的投资税收补贴集。该提案的第二部分提出了一种结构性的投资模型。理论框架建立在先前的研究基础上，这些研究以微观层面为固定的调整成本。该模型通过引入早期工作中未出现的新投资时机摩擦来增加这项研究。定时摩擦允许公司级异质性对均衡投资动态产生重大影响。这是对固定成本和公司级异质性的研究的严重扩展，因为这种异质性的重要影响在早期模型中不存在。结果，拟议的框架将为分析投资政策提供更好的指南。定时摩擦的大小将通过特定类型的投资数据估算。该提案第一部分的经验工作将提供几个参数，以评估理论模型的拟合度，并根据知识上的优点蒙上的效果进行估计。该项目将开发一种现代的投资模型，该模型结合了重要的摩擦，这意味着重要的是公司水平的异质性。虽然该模型包含许多复杂的现代特征，但它也可以在分析上进行处理，并且可以产生尖锐的测试预测。因此，这项研究将允许现代投资模型以有意义的方式面对数据，并用于评估特定政策。这项研究将为旨在通过刺激投资或促进投资以增加经济增长来影响整体经济活动的政府政策提供理论和经验指南。此外，通过阐明各种冲击如何影响投资活动，该分析的结果对于研究业务周期将很有价值。