Investigating the Electoral Impact and Deliberation of the Oregon Citizens' Initiative Review

调查俄勒冈州公民倡议审查的选举影响和审议

• 批准号: 0961774
• 负责人: John Gastil
• 金额: $ 21.85万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-07-01 至 2011-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0961774&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Investigating; Electoral; Impact; Deliberation; Oregon

In June 2009 Oregon's governor signed into law a bill to create Citizens' Initiative Review (CIR) panels for the 2010 statewide general election. Two-to-three times in the summer of 2010, a stratified random sample of 18-24 Oregon citizens will deliberate on an initiative for 5 days, then prepare a one-page statement that goes into the official Voters' Pamphlet distributed to each registered voter by the Oregon Secretary of State. This research is the first opportunity to assess the impact of a small deliberative group (i.e., the CIR panels) on a large-scale electoral process. In doing so, this project will address two questions. First, the research assesses whether the CIR process maintains its design integrity and leads its citizen panelists to engage in high-quality deliberation that yields a well-informed and reasoned Pamphlet statement. To address this question, the project's research team assesses the CIR itself: its overall design and the soundness of its deliberation and judgments. This involves creating and analyzing transcripts of the CIR panel meetings, as well as archival records of the CIR planning process.Second, the investigators explore whether the CIR's statement in the Voters' Pamphlet has a substantial electoral impact: whether it changes how people choose to vote and the reasons they give for the voting choices they make. The bulk of this project's budget will measure electoral impact through a panel survey of likely Oregon voters, with the first wave occurring before the first CIR panel convenes and the second coming at the end of the election. The design and content of the survey will make it possible to discern the degree to which Oregon voters read or otherwise learned about the CIR statements in the Voters' Pamphlet and whether those statements influenced their vote directly or by shaping their perceptions of relevant pro-and-con arguments or factual disputes. This research will help practitioners improve the ballot initiative process.

2009 年 6 月，俄勒冈州州长签署了一项法案，为 2010 年全州大选设立公民倡议审查 (CIR) 小组。 2010 年夏天，18-24 名俄勒冈州公民分层随机抽样，将进行两到三次审议，为期 5 天，然后准备一份一页的声明，纳入分发给每个登记选民的官方选民小册子中。俄勒冈州国务卿投票。这项研究是评估小型审议小组（即 CIR 小组）对大规模选举进程的影响的第一次机会。在此过程中，该项目将解决两个问题。首先，该研究评估 CIR 流程是否保持其设计完整性，并引导其公民小组成员进行高质量的审议，从而产生内容丰富且理由充分的小册子声明。为了解决这个问题，该项目的研究团队对 CIR 本身进行了评估：其总体设计及其审议和判断的合理性。这涉及创建和分析 CIR 小组会议的笔录，以及 CIR 规划过程的档案记录。其次，调查人员探讨 CIR 在选民手册中的声明是否具有重大选举影响：它是否改变了人们选择的方式投票以及他们做出投票选择的理由。该项目的大部分预算将通过对俄勒冈州潜在选民进行小组调查来衡量选举影响，第一波发生在第一次 CIR 小组召开之前，第二波发生在选举结束时。调查的设计和内容将有助于了解俄勒冈州选民阅读或以其他方式了解选民手册中 CIR 声明的程度，以及这些声明是否直接影响他们的投票，或者通过塑造他们对相关支持者和支持者的看法来影响他们的投票。 - 反对论点或事实争议。这项研究将帮助从业者改进投票倡议过程。