Short-term predictability of Arctic climate

北极气候的短期可预测性

• 批准号: 0909313
• 负责人: Cecilia Bitz
• 金额: $ 30.8万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-08-15 至 2013-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0909313&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Short; term; predictability; Arctic; climate

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5).The PI's overarching goal is to investigate short-term Arctic climate predictability and to improve understanding of the mechanisms that give rise to short-term Arctic climate variability. Coupled interactions involving sea ice are her chief focus. New ocean and sea ice state estimates that assimilate both ocean and sea ice observations make it possible for the first time to properly initialize fully coupled climate models to investigate short-term Arctic climate forecasts. A few climate models, including the Community Climate System Model, appear capable of high quality simulations of Arctic climate and should be good candidates for such an activity: She proposes to validate predictability of short-term Arctic climate forecasts using an ensemble forecast with the new CCSM4. She will investigate methods to produce Arctic seasonal to interannual forecasts. She will produce short-term probability forecasts of the Arctic sea ice and climate system by the end of the project. Since many of the same sea ice physical processes of fundamental importance for climate change time scales are also key to short-term forecasts, she will use understanding gained about the model from short-term predictions, which are more easily verifiable, to interpret projections of future greenhouse warming climate change.

该奖项是根据2009年的《美国回收与再投资法》（公法111-5）资助的。PI的总体目标是调查短期北极气候可预测性，并提高人们对引起短期北极气候变化的机制的理解。涉及海冰的耦合互动是她的主要重点。新的海洋和海冰状态估计，吸收海洋和海冰观测结果使得首次有可能正确初始化完全耦合的气候模型来研究短期的北极气候预测。一些气候模型，包括社区气候系统模型，似乎能够对北极气候进行高质量的模拟，并且应该是这种活动的良好候选者：她提议使用与新CCSM4的整体预测来验证短期北极气候预测的可预测性。她将研究生产北极季节性至年际预测的方法。她将在项目结束时对北极海冰和气候系统进行短期概率预测。由于许多相同的海冰物理过程对气候变化时间尺度的基本重要性也是短期预测的关键，因此，她将利用从短期预测中获得对模型的理解，这些预测更容易验证，以解释未来温室变暖的预测。