NSCC/SA-Collaborative Research: How Politics Inside Dictatorships Affects Regime Stability and International Conflict

NSCC/SA 合作研究：独裁政权内部政治如何影响政权稳定和国际冲突

• 批准号: 0904478
• 负责人: Barbara Geddes
• 金额: $ 24.28万
• 依托单位: University of California-Los Angeles
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-09-15 至 2012-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0904478&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: NSCC; SA; Collaborative; Research; How

This award was funded through the Social and Behavioral Dimensions of National Security, Conflict, and Cooperation competition, a joint venture between NSF and the Department of Defense.Policy makers need to understand dictatorships better in order to craft effective foreign policy, but systematic research that could result in more reliable predictions about dictatorial behavior in different situations has been limited by inadequate data. Scholars who study autocracies agree that they differ from each other in terms of who has the power to make decisions, which elites and societal groups have influence on these decisions, whether institutions constrain arbitrary dictatorial behavior, how easy it is to remove leaders, and the cost of ouster to leaders. They also agree that these differences should be expected to affect international and domestic behavior. In order to explain and make more reliable predictions about dictators' behavior, analysts need information that allows them to make distinctions among different kinds of autocracy because dictatorships led by different actors and responsive to different elite and societal groups behave in different ways. As part of this project, the PIs will gather information about approximately 175 authoritarian regimes. For each regime, about 60 characteristics relevant for explaining or predicting authoritarian behavior will be coded (or updated and checked for accuracy) and made publicly available. Analysts also need to be able to estimate dictators' time horizons if they are to predict their behavior. Time horizons influence key policy choices ranging from the provision of public goods at home to the initiation of conflict abroad. Dictators who expect to be in power for a long time have reason to invest in policies that contribute to economic growth, in contrast to those who feel threatened by imminent ouster. Threatened dictators also tend to engage in rash international behavior. The project will generate measures of authoritarian time horizons. Time horizons will be modeled by estimating the predicted probabilities of individual dictator ouster and authoritarian regime failure. Preliminary analysis shows that both depend on specific characteristics of the dictatorship in question, e.g., a "sultanistic" dictator like Saddam Hussein has a different time horizon than does the ruler of a party-based regime like the Chinese.

该奖项是通过国家安全，冲突和合作竞争的社会和行为方面资助的，NSF与国防部之间的合资企业需要更好地理解独裁统治，以制定有效的外交政策，但是有效的系统研究可能会导致对不同情况下对独裁行为的更可靠的预测，而在不同情况下的数据受到了不足的限制。 研究专制的学者同意，他们在谁有做出决策的能力方面彼此不同，精英和社会群体对这些决策有影响，机构是否限制了任意独裁行为，消除领导者的容易性以及对领导者的拆除成本是多么容易。 他们还同意，应该期望这些差异影响国际和家庭行为。 为了解释和做出对独裁者行为的更可靠的预测，分析师需要信息，使他们能够在不同种类的专制制度之间进行区分，因为由不同的参与者领导的独裁统治以及对不同的精英和社会群体的反应，以不同的方式行事。 作为该项目的一部分，PI将收集有关大约175个专制政权的信息。 对于每个制度，将编码（或更新并检查准确性），并公开可用。 分析师还需要能够估计独裁者的时间范围，如果他们要预测其行为。 时间范围会影响关键政策选择，从家庭提供公共物品到国外冲突的启动。 与那些被迫在眉睫的罢工威胁的人相比，期望长期执政的独裁者有理由投资有助于经济增长的政策。 受威胁的独裁者还倾向于从事轻率的国际行为。该项目将产生专制时间范围的衡量标准。 时间范围将通过估计单个独裁者罢免和专制政权失败的预测概率来建模。 初步分析表明，这两者都取决于所讨论的独裁统治的特定特征，例如，像萨达姆·侯赛因这样的“苏丹主义”独裁者的时间范围与像中国人这样的基于政党政权的统治者不同。