Doctoral Dissertation: Party System Regionalization and Coalition Stability in Latin America

博士论文：拉丁美洲政党制度区域化与联盟稳定性

• 批准号: 0417396
• 负责人: Barbara Geddes
• 金额: $ 1.19万
• 依托单位: University of California-Los Angeles
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-08-01 至 2006-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0417396&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Party; System; Regionalization

This dissertation examines how the structure of party systems affects the stability of presidential coalitions in Latin America. Scholars believe that the incoherent and unstable party systems in several Latin American countries contribute to poor governance, economic instability, and the fragility of democracy in the region. This dissertation seeks to explain how regional interest differences within countries affect the dimensions of conflict and the stability of coalitions in their party systems. It will show that although conditions conducive to the aggregation of local and regional interests into stable parties or multiparty coalitions exist in some Latin American countries, they are absent in others. Although we have a theoretical expectation that in seeking to control government, politicians and the interests they represent will form long-lived, majority parties or coalitions, this dissertation will argue that for some types of regional interests aggregated into regional parties and for presidents, short coalitions often make political sense. Regional parties that care most about pork for their districts and policies orthogonal to the main left-right policy dimension can only meet their constituents. needs by becoming part of the president's coalition. Consequently, they compete fiercely for places in coalitions of any ideological coloration. This competition tends to drive down the price presidents have to pay to attract coalition partners and to lead to coalition instability as different parties jockey for places. In the empirical investigation of this argument, the researchers expect to find that the presence of parties seeking region-specific and distributive policies is associated with shorter presidential coalitions, even after taking into account different institutional and historical factors that might influence coalition building. The research will involve both in-depth examinations of social and electoral data at the sub-national level in some countries and cross-national empirical analyses for most of Latin America in the current democratic period. The investigation will measure the extent of variation in the vote shares parties receive in different regions of each country, and identify the types of interests represented by regionally-based parties. It will use census and other socio- economic data to map local interests onto vote shares for different kinds of parties; data on the ideological positioning and policy goals of parties to show that some regional parties do not fit onto the standard left-right policy dimension; and data on the length of presidential cabinets, legislative coalitions, and alliances across second-round presidential elections to show that regionalized party systems are associated with shorter coalitions. Broader Impact:The results of this dissertation project will give political scientists a better understanding of the electoral landscape in Latin America and the conditions under which narrow, regionally-based parties survive to play an important role in national politics in some of these countries. These findings will address the relationship, or trade-off, between broad or diverse representation and stable government in the context of highly unequal and territorially heterogeneous societies.

该论文研究了政党制度的结构如何影响拉丁美洲总统联盟的稳定性。 学者们认为，几个拉丁美洲国家的不连贯和不稳定的政党体系促成了该地区不良的治理，经济不稳定和民主的脆弱性。 该论文旨在解释国家内部利益差异如何影响冲突的方面和党内联盟的稳定性。 它将表明，尽管有利于将地方和地区利益汇总为稳定的政党或多方联盟的条件在某些拉丁美洲国家存在，但在其他国家中则缺乏。 尽管我们有一个理论上的期望，即在寻求控制政府时，政客及其所代表的利益将形成长期的多数政党或联盟，但本论文将争辩说，对于某些类型的区域利益，将某些类型的区域利益汇集到区域政党，对于总统，短暂的联盟通常是政治意义的。 最关心猪肉地区的地区政党和与主要左右政策范围正交的政策只能达到其选民。通过成为总统联盟的一部分来需求。 因此，他们在任何意识形态着色的联盟中竞争激烈的竞争。 这项竞争往往会推动总统必须付出的代价来吸引联盟伙伴，并导致联盟不稳定作为不同政党的赛马。 在对这一论点的实证研究中，研究人员希望发现，即使考虑到可能影响联盟建设的不同制度和历史因素，寻求特定地区和分配政策的当事方的存在与较短的总统联盟有关。 这项研究将涉及一些国家 /地区在某些国家 /地区的社会和选举数据的深入考试，以及在当前民主时期大部分拉丁美洲的跨国经验分析。该调查将衡量各个国家不同地区所收到的投票股份的变化程度，并确定以地区为基础的当事人所代表的利益类型。 它将使用人口普查和其他社会经济数据将当地利益映射到各种政党的投票股票上；有关当事方的意识形态定位和政策目标的数据，以表明某些地区政党不符合标准的左右政策维度；以及关于第二轮总统选举的总统内阁，立法联盟和联盟的长度的数据，以表明区域化政党制度与较短的联盟有关。 更广泛的影响：这项论文项目的结果将使政治科学家对拉丁美洲的选举格局有更好的了解，以及狭窄的，基于地区的政党在其中一些国家中在国家政治中发挥重要作用的条件。 这些发现将在高度不平等和领土上异质的社会的背景下解决广泛或多样化的代表与稳定政府之间的关系或权衡。