Tropical Atmosphere/Ocean Variability in the Boreal Summer and Its Relationship with Atlantic Hurricanes

北半球夏季热带大气/海洋变化及其与大西洋飓风的关系

• 批准号: 0849689
• 负责人: Daniel Vimont
• 金额: $ 58.63万
• 依托单位: University of Wisconsin-Madison
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-08-15 至 2014-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0849689&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Tropical; Atmosphere; Ocean; Variability; Boreal

The Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) is the leading mode of coupled variability in the Atlantic, and represents a distinct coupled pattern of sea surface temperature and atmospheric fields that emerges through a broad spectrum of external forcing mechanisms. Previous work has shown that the AMM may provide a dynamical explanation for the observed coherence between a number of regional atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are relevant for tropical cyclone formation. This project aims to better understand the cause of AMM variations during boreal summer, with an emphasis on understanding the link between the AMM and tropical cyclone activity. The research will utilize designed experiments using global general circulation models, dynamical analysis of simple coupled models, analysis and interpretation of observational data, and analysis of existing global coupled model simulations of present and future climate. Specifically, this project will address (i) What is the structure of the AMM during boreal summer? (ii) What dynamical processes control the AMM during boreal summer, and the relationship between the AMM and environmental conditions that influence hurricane activity? (iii) What external forcing mechanisms influence the AMM during boreal summer, and what is the relationship between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and AMM, and (iv) What is the predictability of the AMM, and what processes influence that predictability?Broader impacts of this project include encouraged integration between the disciplines of climate dynamics and tropical cyclone characteristics, training of two graduate students and one post-doctoral researcher, broader dissemination of results in national and international venues, and public availability of real-time data relating to the AMM and to tropical cyclone activity.

大西洋经向模态（AMM）是大西洋耦合变率的主要模态，代表了通过广泛的外部强迫机制出现的海面温度和大气场的独特耦合模式。 先前的工作表明，AMM 可以为观察到的与热带气旋形成相关的许多区域大气和海洋条件之间的一致性提供动力学解释。 该项目旨在更好地了解北半球夏季 AMM 变化的原因，重点是了解 AMM 与热带气旋活动之间的联系。 该研究将利用全球大气环流模型设计的实验、简单耦合模型的动力学分析、观测数据的分析和解释，以及对当前和未来气候的现有全球耦合模型模拟的分析。具体来说，该项目将解决 (i) 北方夏季 AMM 的结构是什么？ (ii) 北半球夏季期间哪些动力过程控制 AMM，以及 AMM 与影响飓风活动的环境条件之间的关系？ (iii) 北半球夏季期间哪些外部强迫机制影响 AMM，以及大西洋数十年涛动 (AMO) 和 AMM 之间的关系是什么，以及 (iv) AMM 的可预测性是什么，以及哪些过程影响该可预测性？该项目的影响包括鼓励气候动力学和热带气旋特征学科之间的整合、培训两名研究生和一名博士后研究员、在国家和国际场所更广泛地传播成果以及向公众提供实时信息与 AMM 和热带气旋活动有关的数据。