Collaborative Research: Copepods in a Warming Climate: A Pan-Regional Model of Arctic and Northwest Atlantic Systems

合作研究：气候变暖中的桡足类：北极和西北大西洋系统的泛区域模型

• 批准号: 0814505
• 负责人: Changsheng Chen
• 金额: $ 22.68万
• 依托单位: University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2008-07-15 至 2013-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0814505&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Copepods; Warming; Climate

The goal of GLOBEC is to understand the underlying biological-physical interactions that determine how climate change affects abundance of marine animals. The GLOBEC approach focuses on individuals and populations dynamics of target species. This study will address major PRS themes by examining the influence of climate on physical and biological processes for a synthetic understanding of how basin- and global-scales changes in climate force physical processes that control local and panregional-scale biological communities. The investigators will use the approaches suggested in the RFP, including panregional physical-biological modeling, by connecting and comparing NWA and Arctic Ocean regions. As part of the GLOBEC NW Atlantic (NWA) program, they developed a 3D biological-physical model to examine effects of climate forced boundary conditions on plankton and dominant copepod species dynamics in the Georges Bank-Gulf of Maine region. Separately, they have also developed a new 3D model of the Arctic Ocean (AO) region and are using it to examine transport of dominant copepod species. As yet, these two models have not been connected to each other. In this pan-regional study, the investigators will combine these models to study linkages between these two systems under scenarios of global warming. They will examine a series of hypotheses that address how dominant copepod species populations in these regions may interact under future warming conditions. Specifically they will use the combined model together with existing data on abundances and vital rates to study how a melting Arctic is likely to affect the distribution and abundance of copepod species across the whole of the Arctic-North Atlantic panregional domain. The proposed work involves four steps: 1) merge the NWA and AO physical models via a new global model grid, extending their lower food web model (NPZD) across the pan-regional domain, to generate present and future (2050) environmental conditions. 2) use these modeled environmental conditions together with life histories of key species to determine their population growth potential within and across regions, 3) use an individual based model (IBM) parameterized for key species to examine effects of transport and behavior on population growth and resulting pan-regional distribution patterns, 4) develop a new evolutionary IBM for a generic copepod to determine selection of optimal life history traits under existing and future (warm) conditions across the pan-regional domain.This detailed, process-oriented, pan-regional modeling study will provide new insights into the biological-physical mechanisms that determine how global warming affects populations of key marine zooplankton species, which occupy a central position in marine food webs. The resulting model will provide a powerful new tool for understanding how pan-regional interactions control ecology and biogeography of dominant marine species.Results of this work will be broadly disseminated to the general oceanographic community, K-12 institutions, and to the population at large, through web-based servers using existing infrastructure at the proposers? institutions. Web-based users can access model results and run the model using chosen parameter settings to obtain predictions of currents, hydrography, and plankton abundance patterns given selected climate forcing scenarios. The investigators will sponsor undergraduate students in scientific and public outreach aspects of the project. Collaboration with the NE COSEE, SEA LAB, and Whyville programs for educational outreach with K12 students and the public both nationally and internationally.

Globec的目的是了解确定气候变化如何影响海洋动物的潜在生物物理相互作用。 Globec方法的重点是目标物种的个体和人群动态。这项研究将通过研究气候对物理和生物学过程的影响来解决主要的PRS主题，以了解盆地和全球范围如何在控制局部和泛区尺度生物群落的气候力量物理过程中如何变化。研究人员将通过连接和比较NWA和北极海洋区域中使用RFP中建议的方法，包括泛区域生物学建模。作为Globec NW Atlantic（NWA）计划的一部分，他们开发了一个3D生物体物理模型，以检查气候强制边界条件对缅因州乔治河畔浮游生物和主要的CopePod物种动态的影响。另外，他们还开发了一种新的北极海洋3D模型（AO）区域，并正在使用它来检查主要的Copepod物种的运输。到目前为止，这两个模型尚未相互连接。在这项泛区域研究中，研究人员将在全球变暖方案下结合这些模型，研究这两个系统之间的联系。他们将研究一系列假设，这些假设涉及在这些地区的主要copepod物种种群如何在未来的变暖条件下相互作用。具体而言，他们将使用合并的模型以及现有的有关丰度和生命速率的数据来研究融化北极如何影响整个北极 - 北大西洋泛区域中copepod物种的分布和丰度。提出的工作涉及四个步骤：1）通过新的全球模型网格合并NWA和AO物理模型，将其较低的食物网模型（NPZD）扩展到泛区域域，以生成现在和将来（2050）环境条件。 2）使用这些建模的环境条件以及关键物种的生命历史来确定其种群内部和整个区域内的人口增长潜力，3）使用基于个体的模型（IBM）参数为关键物种来检查运输和行为对种群增长的影响，并将其产生的泛区域分布模式以及产生的泛区域分布模式，4）开发出新的进化IBM，以确定一般的copepod plan plan plan plan of Plan plation notial notiation-norial of Plan-norial notial（未来）（未来）（未来）（未来）（未来）（未来）（未来）（未来）（未来）（未来）（未来）详细的，面向过程的泛区域建模研究将为生物体物理机制提供新的见解，这些机制决定了全球变暖如何影响关键海洋浮游动物的种群，这在海洋食品网中占据了中心位置。最终的模型将提供一个强大的新工具，以了解泛区域相互作用如何控制主导海洋物种的生态学和生物地理学。这项工作的结果将大致传播到一般海洋学社区K-12机构，K-12机构，以及大众通过基于网络的服务器使用基于Web的服务器，使用基于Web的服务器使用投资人的现有基础设施？机构。基于Web的用户可以访问模型结果，并使用选定的参数设置运行模型，以获取鉴于选定的气候强迫场景的电流，水文和浮游生物丰度模式的预测。研究人员将赞助该项目的科学和公共外展方面的本科生。与NE Cosee，Sea Lab和Whyville计划与K12学生以及国际和国际公众的教育宣传计划合作。