Stochastic Metapopulation Models Applied to Amphibians on the Southern High Plains

随机种群模型应用于南部高原两栖动物

• 批准号: 0718302
• 负责人: Linda Allen
• 金额: $ 47万
• 依托单位: Texas Tech University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-09-01 至 2011-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0718302&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Stochastic; Metapopulation; Models; Applied; Amphibians

The 25,000 playa wetlands on the Southern High Plains (SHP) serve as habitat for a diverse mixture of flora and fauna. Playas are shallow recharge wetlands with each individual playa existing within its own watershed. Amphibians on the SHP depend on the playas for breeding.Playas must contain water during the breeding period in order for eggs and larvae to mature. The timing and length of the playa hydroperiod (the period of time during which the playa contains water) are critical parameters in amphibian survival. The patchy occurrence of playa wetlands on the SHP, and on the Great Plains as a whole, suggest that wetland inhabitants live in multiple local populations sustained by occasional interaction among metapopulations. The mechanisms of how these wetland mosaics maintain their metapopulations are poorly understood. Yet clearly, mounting destruction (through sedimentation and chemical runoff) results in reduced wetland hydroperiod and wetland density, and increased isolation among wetlands. Indeed, sedimentation in playa wetlands decreases hydroperiod, increases the rate of water loss, and eventually fills the playa to such an extent that it is rendered non-functional as a wetland. Demographic and environmental variability, as well as global climate change, will have a significant impact on the reproduction and survival of amphibian populations over the long term. Current metapopulation theory is primarily based on deterministic mathematical models, i.e, systems of ordinary differential equations. The objectives of this project are (1) to extend standard deterministic metapopulation models to new stochastic differential equation models, (2) to develop new stochastic metapopulation models for populations that depend on a dynamic landscape, (3) to collect data on amphibian community composition in the playas, and (4) to apply these new stochastic metapopulation models to amphibian populations on the SHP based on the data collected in this project.Stochastic differential equation modeling in ecology is a relatively new area but is an important and rapidly expanding area of interest in the mathematical and biological sciences. There have been no comprehensive mathematical models for the dynamics of species inhabiting the Southern High Plains (SHP). This project, in addition to advancing the theory and application of stochastic differential equations, will provide a greater understanding of amphibian populations and the ecology of the SHP. Graduate students will be trained and programs strengthened at Texas Tech University and Oklahoma State University in biological modeling, stochastic mathematics, wildlife management, and ecology. In addition, the results of this project will lead to recommendations for conservation of amphibian populations and for maintenance of playa integrity that will have a broad impact on future research on the SHP, the Great Plains as a whole, and on other similar semiarid environments.

南部高平原（SHP）上的25,000个Playa湿地是动植物种类繁多的栖息地。 Playas是浅水充值湿地，每个Playa都存在于其自己的流域中。 SHP上的两栖动物依赖于繁殖的Playas。在繁殖期间，Playas必须含有水，以使鸡蛋和幼虫成熟。 Playa hydroperiod的时间和长度（Playa含有水的时间）是两栖动物生存中的关键参数。 SHP上的Playa湿地发生了零散的发生，在整个Plains上，这表明湿地居民生活在多个当地人群中，这些人群偶尔会在体系中互动。这些湿地镶嵌如何保持其量产的机制知之甚少。 然而，很明显，安装的破坏（通过沉积和化学径流）导致湿地水交和湿地密度降低，并增加了湿地之间的隔离。实际上，普拉亚湿地中的沉积物减少了水力发电，增加了水分流失的速度，并最终填充了Playa，以至于将其作为湿地呈现非功能性。人口和环境变异性以及全球气候变化将对两性人口的繁殖和生存产生重大影响。当前的种群理论主要基于确定性数学模型，即普通微分方程的系统。 The objectives of this project are (1) to extend standard deterministic metapopulation models to new stochastic differential equation models, (2) to develop new stochastic metapopulation models for populations that depend on a dynamic landscape, (3) to collect data on amphibian community composition in the playas, and (4) to apply these new stochastic metapopulation models to amphibian populations on the SHP based on the data collected in this project.Stochastic生态学中的微分方程建模是一个相对较新的领域，但在数学和生物科学中是一个重要且迅速扩展的领域。没有针对居住在南部高原（SHP）的物种动态的全面数学模型。除了推进随机微分方程的理论和应用外，该项目还将对两栖动物种群和SHP的生态有更深入的了解。研究生将接受培训，并在德克萨斯理工大学和俄克拉荷马州立大学的生物建模，随机数学，野生动植物管理和生态学方面加强课程。此外，该项目的结果将导致对两栖动物人群的保护和维持Playa完整性的建议，这将对SHP的未来研究，整个大平原以及其他类似的半干旱环境产生广泛的影响。