Dynamics and Predictability of Extratropical Vortices

温带涡旋的动力学和可预测性

• 批准号: 0552004
• 负责人: Gregory Hakim
• 金额: $ 27.78万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-08-01 至 2011-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0552004&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Dynamics; Predictability; Extratropical; Vortices

Tropopause vortices are ubiquitous features at high latitudes. While some of these vortices, such as cut-off cyclones, are related to extratropical cyclogenesis and Rossby wave breaking, others appear to occur independently of these processes. In particular, over the arctic, vortices occur poleward of the extratropical jet streams and are a defining characteristic of the interior of the larger circumpolar vortex. Explanations for arctic vortex origination and intensification are lacking, and these issues form the basis for the research. A second thrust of the research concerns the predictability of the larger-scale flows that contain these vortices. Key hypotheses regarding vortex intensity changes will be tested using both observational and modeling approaches and these are: (1) radiative cooling is responsible for saturating the core of arctic vortices, and that this process is important for the vortex dynamics; (2) weaker stability near the tropopause may allow the level of maximum latent heating associated with condensation to move up closer to the dynamical tropopause; and (3) radiation may dominate latent heating for very cold vortices, and latent heating may dominate for warmer vortices. Modeling strategy will be applied to systematically test the hypotheses regarding the feedbacks of radiation and latent heating on tropopause vortex dynamics. Intellectual Merit: The PI will (1) test key hypotheses regarding vortex intensity changes using both observational and modeling approaches; (2) use observational work to determine the large-scale patterns associated with vortex intensity changes for a large sample of cases; and (3) will examine individual cases using numerical model simulations and ensemble-based state estimation techniques. Broader Impacts: The research will improve our understanding of the polar vortices and also increases the predictability of mid-latitude weather. A graduate and undergraduate student will be trained in the observational and modeling analysis of polar vortices.

对流层顶涡旋是高纬度地区普遍存在的特征。虽然其中一些涡旋（例如截止气旋）与温带气旋发生和罗斯贝波破碎有关，但其他涡旋似乎独立于这些过程而发生。特别是，在北极上空，涡旋发生在温带急流的极地，并且是较大的环极涡旋内部的决定性特征。缺乏对北极涡旋起源和增强的解释，这些问题构成了研究的基础。该研究的第二个重点涉及包含这些漩涡的更大规模流动的可预测性。关于涡旋强度变化的关键假设将使用观测和建模方法进行测试，这些假设是：（1）辐射冷却导致北极涡旋核心饱和，并且该过程对于涡旋动力学很重要； （2）对流层顶附近较弱的稳定性可能允许与凝结相关的最大潜热水平向上移动到更接近动力对流层顶； (3) 对于非常冷的涡流，辐射可能主导潜热，而对于较热的涡流，潜热可能主导。建模策略将用于系统地检验有关辐射和潜热对对流层顶涡动力学的反馈的假设。智力优点：PI 将 (1) 使用观测和建模方法测试有关涡强度变化的关键假设； (2) 利用观测工作来确定与大量案例样本的涡强度变化相关的大规模模式； (3) 将使用数值模型模拟和基于集合的状态估计技术来检查个别案例。更广泛的影响：这项研究将增进我们对极涡的了解，并提高中纬度天气的可预测性。研究生和本科生将接受极涡观测和建模分析方面的培训。