Financial Frictions, Monetary Policy and Business Cycles: Developing Quantitative Models of Economic Fluctuations

金融摩擦、货币政策和商业周期：开发经济波动的定量模型

• 批准号: 0419184
• 负责人: Varadarajan Chari
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-11-01 至 2010-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0419184&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Financial; Frictions; Monetary; Policy; Business

This project develops quantitative general equilibrium models of business cycles to assess the quantitative role of monetary policy and financial frictions in generating business cycles. The models must be consistent with available microeconomic evidence at the firm and plant level. This project has a sizable empirical component that involves accessing datasets typically not used by macroeconomists. The project develops a new accounting framework for conducting business cycle analysis. This framework and the data suggest the need for new models of business cycle fluctuations. Factors that distort the relationship between the marginal rate of substitution in leisure and consumption and the marginal product of labor, called labor wedges, and factors which distort the relationship between factor inputs and output, called efficiency wedges, play large roles over the business cycle. The challenge is to develop models in which monetary policy and financial frictions introduce labor and efficiency wedges.The project develops models in which financial frictions induce efficiency wedges. In the data, small firms contract disproportionately following a monetary tightening. A model of endogenous liquidity constraints is developed in which financial frictions affect the use of working capital, particularly for small firms. Larger firms are less affected by liquidity constraints because they have greater access to public debt markets. A monetary tightening disproportionately affects small firms and distorts the use of working capital relative to other inputs by small firms, and thereby produces an efficiency wedge. The project develops models in which small firms discipline the monopoly power of large firms. Financial frictions disproportionately affect small firms. In recessions, financial frictions worsen and small firms' marginal costs rise relative to those of large firms. The economy becomes less competitive and the resulting distortions manifest themselves as labor wedges.The project is primarily empirical. A proposal to the Census Bureau requesting access to an extensive detailed collection of data at the plant and firm level has been approved. This project analyzes the business cycle characteristics of the size distribution of firms, price-cost margins by firm size, labor productivity by firm size as well as borrowing costs and other measures of financial constraints by firm size. A panel tracking the behaviour of plants and the characteristics of their associated firms will be constructed using data from the Annual Census of Manufactures, the Census of Manufactures and data from publicly available sources.Broader Impacts: The broader impacts are that the project will help improve the conduct of monetary policy over the business cycle. The projects will also help in the design of regulatory policy aimed at the banking and financial services industry and in the design of policies aimed at new and small firms.

该项目开发了业务周期的定量一般均衡模型，以评估货币政策和金融摩擦在产生商业周期中的定量作用。这些模型必须与在公司和工厂层面上可用的微观经济证据保持一致。 该项目具有相当大的经验组件，涉及访问宏观经济师通常不使用的数据集。 该项目为进行商业周期分析开发了一个新的会计框架。 该框架和数据表明需要新的商业周期波动模型。扭曲休闲和消费替换率之间的关系的因素与劳动力的边际产品（称为劳动楔子）之间的关系，以及扭曲因子输入和输出（称为效率楔形）之间关系的因素，在商业周期中起着很大的作用。挑战是开发货币政策和金融摩擦引入劳动力和效率楔形的模型。该项目开发了金融摩擦引起效率楔形的模型。在数据中，小型公司在货币收紧后签订了不成比例的。 开发了一种内源性流动性约束的模型，其中金融摩擦会影响营运资金的使用，特别是对于小公司。较大的公司受流动性限制的影响较小，因为它们可以更多地进入公共债务市场。货币收紧会影响小企业，并扭曲了相对于小公司其他投入的营运资金的使用，从而产生了效率楔形。 该项目开发了小公司纪念大公司的垄断力量的模型。金融摩擦不成比例地影响小公司。在衰退中，金融摩擦恶化，小公司的边际成本相对于大公司的成本上升。经济变得越来越竞争，由此产生的扭曲表现为劳动楔子。该项目主要是经验的。已批准了一项针对人口普查局的提案，要求访问工厂和公司一级的大量详细数据收集。 该项目分析了公司规模分布的商业周期特征，按公司规模按价格成本的利润率，按公司规模计算的劳动生产率以及借贷成本以及其他按公司规模按财务约束的量度。跟踪植物行为及其相关公司特征的小组将使用年度制造商的数据，制造商的人口普查以及来自公共可用来源的数据进行构建。Boader的影响：更广泛的影响是该项目将有助于改善商业周期中货币政策的行为。这些项目还将有助于设计针对银行和金融服务行业的监管政策，以及针对新公司的政策设计。