Patterns of Climate Variability

气候变化的模式

• 批准号: 0318675
• 负责人: John Wallace
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-08-15 至 2009-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0318675&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Patterns; Climate; Variability

This grant research involves the application of a variety of statistical analysis tools and dynamical insight to investigate climate variability on time scales ranging from weeks to decades. The analysis will be primarily based on observational data, including model assimilated datasets such as the NCEP and ECMWF Reanalyses. Of particular interest are the principal patterns or 'modes' of variability that account for disproportionately large fractions of the variance of the pressure field, the forced pattern in the year-to-year variability observed in association with the ENSO cycle, and fluctuations in the zonally symmetric (or annular) component of the atmospheric general circulation. The major goals of the research are:(1) to formulate a more concise and dynamically based classification of these leading modes of variability;(2) to better understand the nonlinear interactions by which the circulation anomalies associated with one mode influence the structure of other modes;(3) to document the widespread impacts of these modes upon surface weather, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, aerosols, ocean color, and land vegetation; (4) to elucidate their role in producing the pronounced high latitude warming and other climatic trends that have been observed during the past few decades;(5) more generally, to determine whether the climate trends of the past few decades are large enough to account for the large environmental changes that have been observed over Alaska and other polar and sub-polar regions.The project will directly support the training of graduate students and indirectly contribute to the mentoring of postdoctoral research associates. Project deliverables include an on-line atlas of basic general circulation statistics and a monograph on the atmospheric general circulation.This research is important because of its educational impacts and also because it provides scientific information relevant to weather and climate prediction.

这项赠款研究涉及应用各种统计分析工具和动态见解，以研究从几周到几十年的时间尺度上的气候变化。该分析将主要基于观察数据，包括模型吸收的数据集，例如NCEP和ECMWF Reanalyses。特别感兴趣的是压力场差异的不成比例的变异性的主要模式或“模式”。 The major goals of the research are:(1) to formulate a more concise and dynamically based classification of these leading modes of variability;(2) to better understand the nonlinear interactions by which the circulation anomalies associated with one mode influence the structure of other modes;(3) to document the widespread impacts of these modes upon surface weather, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, aerosols, ocean color, and land vegetation; （4）为了阐明其在过去几十年中观察到的明显的高纬度变暖和其他气候趋势中的作用；（5）更普遍地确定过去几十年的气候趋势是否足够大，足以说明对阿拉斯加及其其他贡献的培训和培训的培训的巨大环境变化。同事。项目可交付成果包括一个基本通用循环统计的在线地图集和关于大气通用循环的专着。这项研究很重要，因为它的教育影响，也是因为它提供了与天气和气候预测有关的科学信息。