Lakes at risk under climate change: Climate variability matters

气候变化下湖泊面临风险：气候变化很重要

• 批准号: 120278245
• 负责人: Professorin Dr. Rita Adrian, Ph.D.
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Leibniz-Institut für Gewässerökologie und Binnenfischerei (IGB)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2008-12-31 至 2014-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/120278245?language=en
• 关键词: Lakes; risk; under; climate; change

The project will enhance the understanding of lake ecosystems’ responsiveness to global warming, particularly to the variability in climate and weather conditions. The focal question is in what ways the detailed seasonal pattern of observed and projected climate warming affects the physical and biological structure of lakes. The rationale of this approach is that mean temperature changes (averaged over years or seasons) are inadequate measures of the changes that ecosystems experience, especially since the same average temperature change can derive from a multitude of warming patterns from sub-daily to decadal temporal scales. We thus challenge the supposition that the risk of critical ecosystem change increases quasi-linearly with rising mean temperature. For a suite of different lakes in Central Europe and beyond, the project will systematically analyse effects of different degrees of local and global warming upon key lake properties such as stratification events and plankton population dynamics. Using multi-decadal observational time series, already observed climate changes will be grouped according to their average annual and seasonal warming rates, followed by analysis of the ecological variability within these groups as imposed by short-term variability in the weather. Analogously, ecological impacts and risks of change under a range of future scenarios that explicitly cover a large range of possible realisations of seasonal weather evolution will be explored by use of statistical and mechanistic models and a probability-based analytical framework. The project is expected to contribute substantially to the understanding of climate change impacts upon the temporal variability of ecosystems.

该项目将增强对湖泊生态系统对全球变暖的反应的理解，尤其是对气候和天气状况的变化。一个重点问题是，观察到的气候变暖的详细季节性模式如何影响湖泊的物理和生物结构。这种方法的理由是，平均温度变化（在几年或季节中平均）是生态系统所经历的变化的措施不足，尤其是因为相同的平均温度变化可以从从亚日到衰减到贫困的临时量表的多种变暖模式得出。因此，我们挑战了以下假设：关键生态系统变化的风险随着平均温度的上升而增加了准线性。对于中欧及其他地区的不同湖泊的套件，该项目将系统地分析不同程度的局部和全球变暖对分层事件和浮游生物种群动态等关键湖泊特性的影响。使用多年观察时间序列，已经观察到的气候变化将根据其平均年度和季节性变暖率进行分组，然后分析这些组内的生态变异性，这是由于天气中的短期可变性所施加的。类似地，将通过使用统计和机械模型以及基于概率的分析框架来探索一系列未来涵盖各种可能实现的季节性天气发展可能实现的变化的影响和变化风险。预计该项目将有助于理解气候变化对生态系统暂时变化的影响。