Developing improved social-ecological scenarios for biodiversity and ecosystem services in north temperate freshwater ecosystems over the next half century

为未来半个世纪北温带淡水生态系统的生物多样性和生态系统服务制定改进的社会生态情景

• 批准号: 411108520
• 负责人: Professorin Dr. Rita Adrian, Ph.D.
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Leibniz-Institut für Gewässerökologie und Binnenfischerei (IGB)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2017-12-31 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/411108520?language=en
• 关键词: Developing; improved; social; ecological; scenarios

In the context of global change an increase in extreme events such as storms or heatwaves is expected- on top of the general warming trends. We will develop scenarios to understand how the overlap of short-term (heat waves, Storms) and long-term (climate warming) disturbances act in concert affecting biodiversity of lake ecosystems in the north temperate zone in time and the consequences for ecosystem functioning, resilience and ecosystem services. We predict that the timing, magnitude and frequency of short-term extremes play an important role because e.g. storms of similar magnitude can have different effects depending on the season or the morphometry of a lake. The scenarios build on empirical decadal data from lakes across the world at temporal resolution of minutes (automatic in situ measurements from GLEON lakes; water temperature, oxygen, chl.a, turbidity) and weekly to monthly resolution ( > 34 north temperate lakes with data on plankton communities, abiotic drivers such temperature, nutrients, light). Based on remote sensing data (Sentinel satellite images; water temperature, chlorophyll a) we will test as to how the frequency of unstable lakes with respect to water clarity increase with global warming for lakes globally. The project will develop an innovative methodological framework that combines a collective (cross-regional) approach to forecasting scenario planning for freshwater ecosystems and a backcasting scenario planning that considers these drivers in the design of pathways towards a sustainability vision of freshwater ecosystems. The methodology will be applied in case studies in Germany, Sweden and Canada. Expected results include design principles for participatory scenario processes to support transformational learning towards sustainable use of freshwater ecosystem services and characteristics of human-freshwater interactions that determine the resilience of SES in situations of high use conflicts and uncertainties

在全球变化的背景下，预计暴风雨或热浪等极端事件的增加 - 除了一般的变暖趋势外。我们将开发场景，以了解短期（热浪，风暴）和长期（气候变暖）干扰的重叠，会在北部温带地区的生物多样性以及对生态系统功能的后果，影响湖泊生态系统的生物多样性的协同协调一致地。弹性和生态系统服务。我们预测，短期极端的时机，幅度和频率起着重要作用，因为例如相似大小的暴风雨可能会根据季节或湖泊的形态计量法具有不同的影响。这些方案建立在世界各地湖泊的经验际际数据基础上以时间分钟的时间分辨率（自动的原位测量来自格莱恩湖；水温，氧气，氧气，chl.A，浊度）以及每周到每月分辨率（> 34个北部北部湖泊（> 34个北部的北湖）在浮游生物群落，非生物驱动器上，温度，营养素，光线）。基于遥感数据（前哨卫星图像；水温，叶绿素a），我们将测试不稳定的湖泊在水清晰度方面的频率如何随着全球湖泊在全球变暖而增加。该项目将开发一个创新的方法论框架，该框架结合了一种集体（跨区域）方法，以预测淡水生态系统的情况计划和背景场景规划，该计划将这些驱动因素考虑到迈向淡水生态系统可持续性愿景的途径。该方法将应用于德国，瑞典和加拿大的案例研究。预期结果包括参与式场景过程的设计原则，以支持变革性学习，以可持续使用淡水生态系统服务以及人类潮流相互作用的特征，这些互动决定了SES在高使用冲突和不确定性情况下的弹性