Biodiversity Consequences of Global Climate Change in Mexico

全球气候变化对墨西哥生物多样性的影响

• 批准号: 9711621
• 负责人: Townsend Peterson
• 金额: $ 36万
• 依托单位: University of Kansas Main Campus
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1997
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1997-10-01 至 2003-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9711621&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Biodiversity; Consequences; Global; Climate; Change

Peterson 97-11621 Studies of the Magnitude of climate changes expected resulting from buildup of atmospheric CO2 are predicted to affect many facets of the Earth's environments, although the magnitude of many of these effects is unknown. This study aims to integrate data bases regarding the biodiversity of Mexico, thematic geographic data, up-to-date information from satellite imagery, and simple models of global climate change into a series of predictions of the effects of these changes on species of birds, mammals, and butterflies in the region, a first assessment of the biodiversity consequences of global climate change. Multi-seasonal analysis of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer imagery will be used to produce a detailed region wide vegetation map, which will be combined with existing environmental maps and data bases to characterize habitat types. Simple models of the effects of elevated C02 and other agents of climate change will be used to mimic future shifts in distribution and extent of vegetation types and habitats. Geographic distributions of individual species will be predicted based on characteristics of sites of known occurrence; based on the future-shift models developed from climate change projections, species' future distributions will be modeled, and extinction's and colonization inferred. The overall result will be an assessment of the biodiversity consequences of anticipated climate change over the next several decades or centuries in Mexico, as well as the development of several methods and models that will be useful to other investigators interested in similar and related issues.

Peterson 97-11621 对大气中二氧化碳累积造成的气候变化幅度的研究预计会影响地球环境的许多方面，尽管其中许多影响的幅度尚不清楚。这项研究旨在将墨西哥生物多样性的数据库、专题地理数据、卫星图像的最新信息以及全球气候变化的简单模型整合到一系列关于这些变化对鸟类影响的预测中，该地区的哺乳动物和蝴蝶，这是对全球气候变化生物多样性后果的首次评估。对先进甚高分辨率辐射计图像的多季节分析将用于生成详细的全区域植被地图，该地图将与现有的环境地图和数据库相结合，以描述栖息地类型。二氧化碳升高和其他气候变化因素的影响的简单模型将用于模拟植被类型和栖息地的分布和范围的未来变化。将根据已知发生地点的特征来预测单个物种的地理分布；根据气候变化预测开发的未来转变模型，将对物种的未来分布进行建模，并推断灭绝和殖民化。总体结果将是对墨西哥未来几十年或几个世纪预期气候变化对生物多样性的影响进行评估，并开发几种方法和模型，这些方法和模型对其他对类似和相关问题感兴趣的研究人员有用。