The Input - Output Approach to Demand- Shift Instrumental Variables Selection: Theory and Applications

需求转变工具变量选择的输入-输出方法：理论与应用

• 批准号: 9122346
• 负责人: John Shea
• 金额: $ 3.97万
• 依托单位: University of Wisconsin-Madison
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1992
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1992-03-01 至 1994-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9122346&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Input; Output; Approach; Demand; Shift

Traditional economic wisdom holds that demand surges during business cycle booms generate inflation. Demand rises more quickly than capacity during booms; in turn, this excess demand produces "tight" labor and product markets and therefore rising wages and prices. While this wisdom is widely accepted by economists, the press and policymakers, its empirical foundations are questionable, as many recent studies show that rates of wage and price inflation are uncorrelated or even negatively correlated with the business cycle. It is the investigator's opinion that these recent studies fail to address the question of whether demand surges generate wage and price inflation. The correlation between inflation and the business cycle reflects the influence of both supply and demand factors. Adverse supply shocks, such as the oil price increases of 1973 and 1979, cause prices to rise and output to fall; such shocks can cause prices to appear negatively correlated with the business cycle even if demand shocks generate wage-price inflation. Studies examining only the correlation between inflation and the business cycle are thus not useful to policymakers attempting to determine the potential inflationary effects of fiscal or monetary policies designed to stimulate short-run output growth. This research will implement a new methodology for addressing the relationship between demand shocks and wage-price inflation. Information from input-output tables published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics will be used to identify the actual sources of demand for disaggregated industries. This information makes the estimation of the responses of industry wages and prices to observable industry demand shocks possible. For instance, if input-output tables indicate that most lumber is used for construction purposes, the response of lumber wages and prices to movements in construction industry output will be investigated. By examining the relationship between price and industry demand, rather than the mere correlation between price and industry output, the influence of supply shocks on industry activity will be effectively controlled. These results will therefore be more useful than existing research for examining the potential inflationary impact of fiscal and monetary policies designed to stimulate aggregate demand.

传统的经济智慧认为，在商业周期繁荣期间需求激增会产生通货膨胀。 需求比繁荣期间的容量更快；反过来，这种过剩的需求会产生“紧密”的劳动力和产品市场，因此工资和价格上涨。 尽管这种智慧被经济学家广泛接受，新闻界和决策者，但其经验基础是值得怀疑的，因为许多最近的研究表明，工资和价格通货膨胀率与商业周期不相关，甚至是负相关的。 研究者认为，这些最近的研究未能解决需求激增是否产生工资和价格通货膨胀的问题。 通货膨胀与商业周期之间的相关性反映了供求因素的影响。 不利的供应冲击，例如1973年和1979年的石油价格上涨，导致价格上涨和产出下跌；这种冲击会导致价格与商业周期呈负相关，即使需求冲击产生工资价格通货膨胀。 因此，仅检查通货膨胀与商业周期之间的相关性的研究对于试图确定旨在刺激短期产出增长的财政或货币政策的潜在通货膨胀影响的决策者没有用。 这项研究将实施一种新方法来解决需求冲击与工资价格通货膨胀之间的关系。 劳工统计局发布的投入输出表中的信息将用于确定分类行业需求的实际需求来源。 这些信息使对可观察到的行业需求冲击的行业工资和价格的响应进行了估计。 例如，如果输入输出表表明大多数木材用于建筑目的，则将研究木材工资和价格对建筑行业产出的运动的响应。 通过检查价格和行业需求之间的关系，而不是价格与行业产出之间的相关性，将有效控制供应冲击对行业活动的影响。 因此，这些结果将比现有研究更有用，以研究旨在刺激总需求的财政和货币政策的潜在通货膨胀影响。