Decisions Under Uncertainty: Source Dependence

不确定性下的决策：来源依赖

• 批准号: 9110572
• 负责人: Richard Gonzalez
• 金额: $ 18.71万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1991
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1991-08-15 至 1995-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9110572&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Decisions; Under; Uncertainty; Source; Dependence

This project studies how individuals actually make decisions under uncertainty. Respondents will state cash equivalences for prospects defined over events. The project will then empirically validate recent axiomatic models of decision making which allow the separation of attitudes about consequences from attitudes about risk and uncertainty and which are defined over events that do not necessarily have a well-defined additive probability measure. The proposed research seeks to characterize risk attitudes as a function of the events(the weighting function) rather than the traditional view of characterizing risk attitudes as a function of the utility curve. Seven studies are proposed to understand people's attitudes about risk and uncertainty. The main focus of the studies will be to characterize properties of the weighting function and understand the relationship between the source of the uncertainty and the shape of the weighting function (i.e., source dependence.) Supplementing the empirical work will be a study of additional constraints, or axioms, needed to specify functional forms for the weighting function.

该项目研究个人如何在不确定性下做出决定。 受访者将陈述对事件定义的前景的现金等价。 然后，该项目将在经验上验证最新的公理决策模型，从而使对后果的态度与对风险和不确定性的态度的态度分开，并且在不一定具有明确定义的附加概率度量的事件上定义了态度。 拟议的研究试图将风险态度表征为事件（加权功能）的函数，而不是将风险态度表征为实用程序曲线的函数的传统观点。 提出了七项研究，以了解人们对风险和不确定性的态度。 研究的主要重点是表征加权函数的特性，并了解不确定性的来源与加权函数的形状之间的关系（即，补充经验工作的源依赖性。