Comparing Divergent Views: The Sacco-Vanzetti Case

比较不同的观点：萨科-凡泽蒂案

• 批准号: 8900025
• 负责人: Joseph Kadane
• 金额: $ 7.93万
• 依托单位: Carnegie-Mellon University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1989
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1989-07-01 至 1991-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=8900025&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Comparing; Divergent; Views; Sacco; Vanzetti

This proposal develops a well-known case study, the Sacco-Vanzetti trial, as a vehicle for introducing the use of statistical language and reasoning into the analysis of historical and political events. The project is interesting from a theoretical perspective because of its ability to offer insights about the source of a disagreement and the use conflicting information concerning facts and values. Very little is known about how to conduct decision analyses in the face of conflicting interpretations of facts: this proposal should shed some light on this important topic. The project also is interesting from an applied perspective because of its ability to inform historians and legal scholars about an innovative and rigorous approach to assessing probabilities and structuring people's thinking about events. There has been very little use of structured probability assessment procedures to settle important legal and historical disputes: this proposal should provide information about the use of Bayesian assessment procedures in this context. Both the qualifications of the investigators and the importance of these topics suggest that the results of the project should prove to be interesting and stimulating to researchers from a diverse set of disciplines.

该提案开发了一项众所周知的案例研究，即Sacco-Vanzetti试验，是将使用统计语言和推理引入历史和政治事件分析的工具。从理论角度来看，该项目很有趣，因为它能够提供有关分歧来源以及有关事实和价值观的使用冲突信息的见解。 面对事实相互矛盾的解释，如何进行决策分析知之甚少：该提议应该阐明这一重要主题。从应用的角度来看，该项目也很有趣，因为它有能力将创新和严格的方法告知历史学家和法律学者，以评估概率并构造人们对事件的思考。 结构化概率评估程序几乎没有用来解决重要的法律和历史纠纷：该提案应提供有关在这种情况下使用贝叶斯评估程序的信息。 研究人员的资格和这些主题的重要性都表明，该项目的结果应该被证明是有趣的，并激发了来自各种学科的研究人员。