干旱区典型内陆河流域冰川变化影响的水资源脆弱性研究

The sensitivity and vulnerability of water resources in the northwest arid regions of China are widely concerned. And glacier melt water resources is an important part of water resources in the northwest arid regions, which restricts the healthy operation of the inland river basin oasis system. But the changes of glacier melt water has already and will be what and how much effect on arid oasis development，which is a key scientific issue for academics needs to clear. So this project intends to choose basins with different glacier melt water supply proportions as the typical cases, to analyze the differentiation characters of water resources vulnerability response to the glacier changes in the inland river basin, one of the typical cases is the Aksu River basin with larger proportion of glacier melt water supply(53.1%), the other one is the Urumqi River basin with small proportion of glacier melt water supply relatively(10%). Also the project takes vulnerability as clues, combines with the arid regions water resources impact of glacier changes, sensitivity attribute of global changes and local social economic development, selects indicators for exposure of arid regions water resources, sensitivity of glacier melt water and oasis adaptability, further establishes evaluation systems depending on different methods and different indicators from simple to complex. To reach the research aim, this project synthesizes various assessment approaches in the two typical basins to assess and contrast vulnerability of glacier melt water resources, to explore suitable assessment method of water resources vulnerability assessment under the influence of glacier changes in arid regions, then concludes the different characters of water resource vulnerability responses to glacier changes in the continental river basin. Finally this project and its results will service for the sustainable development of inland river basins.

冰川融水是中国西北干旱区水资源的重要组成部分，制约着内陆河流域绿洲系统的健康运行。但冰川融水变化已经和将可能给干旱区绿洲发展带来什么影响及多大程度的影响，是学术界亟需明确的重要科学问题。本项目拟选择西北干旱区冰川融水补给比例较大的阿克苏河流域、补给相对较小的乌鲁木齐河流域为典型案例，以脆弱性为线索，将干旱区水资源受冰川变化影响的程度、冰川变化对全球变化的敏感性属性和当地社会经济发展相结合，遴选出综合反映干旱区水资源暴露度、冰川水资源敏感性和绿洲发展适应能力的指标，构建由简单指标到繁杂细化指标的不同指标体系，并综合运用不同方法和模型进行评价比对，探寻适合干旱区冰川变化影响的水资源脆弱性评估方法，进而分析内陆河流域水资源脆弱性对冰川变化响应的差异性特征，为内陆河流域的可持续发展服务。

冰川融水是中国西北干旱区水资源的重要组成部分，其对内陆河流域绿洲系统的良性运行起着至关重要作用。本项目以西北干旱区冰川融水补给比例较大的阿克苏河流域和冰川补给比例相对较小的乌鲁木齐河流域为典型案例，围绕脆弱性关键问题，将干旱区水资源受冰川变化影响的程度、冰川变化对全球变化的敏感性和绿洲发展适应能力相结合，遴选出能够综合反映冰川水资源脆弱性特征的指标并构建由复杂到简单的不同的指标体系，运用数学模型定量分析了不同流域的冰川水资源脆弱性程度。结果表明：近几十年来的遥感资料反演反映出干旱区典型内陆河流域绿洲规模均呈现不同程度的持续扩张，其中绿洲规模主要表现为随着人工渠系和水利工程设施的延伸和扩建而扩张，新增绿洲主要集中于绿洲与荒漠过渡带的环境脆弱地带，绿洲核心区相对比较稳定。进一步分析内陆河流域出山径流、冰川融水径流和全球变化对绿洲动态的影响，揭示出冰川补给比例较大的内陆河流域，冰川变化通过影响出山径流作用于绿洲动态发展，而冰川补给比例较小的流域，山区降水对绿洲的影响则较大，同时考虑常被忽略的平原绿洲区域降水对绿洲的生态水文功能，得出乌河流域绿洲区降水量及绿洲区人工水利工程对绿洲影响相对较大，阿克苏河流域绿洲发展则主要赖于出山径流。结合典型绿洲区的社会经济资料，遴选出综合反映冰川水资源暴露度、敏感性和绿洲发展适应能力的指标，运用主成分分析方法，构建由复杂到简单的不同的指标体系，比对评价结果，揭示了冰川补给比例不同的内陆河流域冰川水资源脆弱性特征，即：干旱区内陆河流域的冰川水资源脆弱程度均呈现增加，但冰川补给比例相对较大的流域，冰川变化对绿洲动态变化影响较大，冰川水资源脆弱性程度变化相对较缓；冰川补给比例相对较小的流域，冰川变化相对降水的影响相对较小，冰川水资源脆弱性程度变化相对剧烈。上述研究结果对合理利用内陆河流域水资源和实现绿洲经济可持续发展提供了科学参考。

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