环境效率视角下电力系统节能减排优化策略研究

The policy of dually controlling energy intensity and total consumption presents new challenges to energy saving and emission reduction of electric power systems. The differences of fuel structure and technology, as well as the competitiveness in quota allocation under a given target of energy consumption, increase the difficulties of environmental efficiency evaluation for different participants. It becomes an urgent and important research issue to guarantee the scientificity and rationality of evaluation results, and to minimize the influence of control objective on economic development by means of management mechanism reform and strategy optimization. Firstly, several methods, such as kernel function and stochastic frontier analysis, are adopted to promote the effectiveness of dynamical environmental efficiency. Then the reasons for efficiency differences will be analyzed through empirical studies on the power generation industries of OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) and BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China), as well as provincial administrative regions of China. In addition, the network DEA model will be developed and innovated to analyze the influence of system structure on environmental efficiency, and to reveal the interaction mechanism between the goal of energy saving and emission reduction and operation systems. Then rigorous theoretical supports and practical policy recommendations for management system reforms of electric power industry will be offered. Finally, absorbing the ideas of scenario analysis and mechanism design approach, stochastic dynamic programming and environmental DEA game cross efficiency model will be established respectively to analyze the development trend of electric power industry, clean energy industry in particular, and to forward the quota allocation mechanism of energy saving and emission reduction. This will provide decision support techniques and strategy analysis tools for authorities in formulating subsidy policies and incentive mechanisms and in forwarding optimization strategies of energy saving and emission reduction for power systems.

能源消费强度和消费总量双控制对电力系统的节能减排工作提出了新的挑战。燃料结构、技术水平的差异以及有限能耗配额的竞争关系凸显科学评价电力系统环境效率的重要性，怎样通过优化管理体制和调整发展策略减小控制目标对经济发展的影响成为亟待研究的重要科学问题。本项目首先采用核函数，随机前沿分析等技术探索提高动态环境效率评价结果有效性的方法，研究我国各省市区以及OECD国家与金砖四国发电部门生产情况，分析效率差异的原因。然后创新和发展网络模型，研究电力系统结构对环境效率的影响，揭示节能减排目标与经营体制间相互影响和作用的机理，为优化电力管理体制提供严格的理论支持与切实可行的政策建议。最后借鉴机制设计与情景分析的研究思路，分别构建随机动态规划和博弈交叉环境效率模型，研究电力行业尤其是清洁能源产业发展趋势和能耗配额分配方案,为主管部门制定扶持政策与激励机制，提出节能减排优化策略提供决策技术支持和策略分析工具。

能源消费强度和消费总量双控制对我国总体，尤其是以电力系统为代表的能源密集型行业的节能减排工作提出了新的挑战。燃料结构、技术水平的差异以及有限能耗配额的竞争关系凸显科学评价电力系统环境效率的重要性，进而通过管理体制优化和发展策略调整，减小控制目标对经济发展的影响成为亟待研究的重要科学问题。. 本课题首先采用多种方式提高动态环境效率评价结果有效性。如采用自助法、增加限制条件等方式减少决策单元数量不足对效率值的影响；通过随机前沿分析方法中的无效率项的分析分离异质性因素影响；采用共同前沿分析方法对决策单元分组，确保同组决策单元的同质性等。之后对上述方法尝试以我国各省市区发电部门以及世界经济合作组织（OECD）国家与金砖四国（巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国）发电部门生产情况为例进行实证分析，研究引致决策单元效率差异的原因。. 其次，课题创新和发展了网络数据包络分析模型，通过模拟政策变革的不同情景，研究电力系统结构对环境效率的影响，揭示节能减排目标与经营体制间相互影响和作用的机理，进而通过各决策单元投入产出指标边际成本变化研究提高电力系统环境效率的方式方法；之后借助对数迪氏平均指数法研究电力行业及其他高耗能行业减排的主要驱动因素；还通过半结构化访谈等方法研究节能技术、电动汽车推广的阻碍因素，这些成果都能够为优化电力管理体制提供严格的理论支持与切实可行的政策建议。. 最后，课题借鉴机制设计与情景分析的研究思路，考虑外部环境异质性的影响，构建随机动态规划模型，研究清洁能源发展的优化路径；并采用投入产出分析与抽样调查方法研究电力行业尤其是清洁能源产业发展的影响因素；考虑决策单元间的竞争关系，采用博弈交叉环境效率模型研究火电行业减排潜力与减排配额分配；还综合数据包络分析与随机前沿分析方法研究工业行业不同时期减排的关键部门；这些工作都能够为主管部门优化清洁能源发展激励政策，提出重点行业节能减排优化策略提供决策技术支持和策略分析工具。

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