封闭受限空间环境下公共交通乘客人群疏散规律和动力学模型研究

Passenger in the environment of airtight and limited space is a special crowd with the characteristics of high density and high casualty risk, and frequent accidents such as fire, explosion, crush and trample have posed a great threat to its safety. Analysis shows that passenger’s panic could cause irrational behavior and movement disorders when facing sudden threat, thus limit the escape choice and efficiency of themselves and others. Meanwhile, airtight and narrow space, strong strength contact or collision, also make passenger’s evacuation behaviour more complicated. In this project, multiple complex factors such as the passenger’s individual psychology-behaviour mode, group behaviour characteristics, movement rule, and the escape ability of passenger under the influence of crowd density, space structure, evacuation facility, etc, will be taken into consideration and be quantified by means of combining theoretical model and empirical analysis. Then, the behaviour rule and movement mechanism of passenger would be revealed, and corresponding theoretical and computing model will be established. Finally, risk analysis and early warning method will be formed, based on which, the defects of the transport facilities design or management can be found and relevant technologies or strategies to improve passenger’s evacuation efficiency and transport operation safety will be proposed to ensure the life safety of passengers. The results of this project will be meaningful for further understanding the dynamic evolution rule of the movement of high density crowd, and provide scientific basis for the response and decision of city public transport emergency.

封闭受限空间环境下的乘客人群是一种具有高密集度、高伤亡风险特征的特殊群体，频发的燃烧、爆炸、挤压和踩踏等事故对其安全构成重大威胁。分析表明，乘客面对突发威胁时产生的恐慌情绪会诱发非理性的行为和运动紊乱，影响自身和他人逃生选择及效率，其疏散行为规律也因密闭受限的环境、高强度接触或碰撞而更加复杂。本项目考虑乘客的个体心理-行为模式、群体行为特征、运动规律以及人群密度、空间结构、疏散设置等复杂因素对乘客疏散能力的影响，采用理论模型和实证分析相结合的手段量化相关影响因素，揭示乘客人群的疏散规律，建立相应的理论和计算模型，形成面向乘客人群的风险分析预警方法，发现公共交通设施设计或管理缺陷，提出有利于提高乘客人群疏散效率和交通安全运营的技术或策略，确保乘客人群的生命安全。项目成果对深入理解密集人群运动过程动力学演化规律有重要意义，可为城市公共交通突发事件的应急处置和决策提供科学依据。

为研究具有封闭受限空间环境特征的公共交通乘客人群疏散，提高紧急情况下乘客人群疏散效力和保障生命安全，以形成可研究具有运动空间封闭受限特征的疏散实验方法、可应用于工程实际中公共交通安全优化设计的疏散模型、可适用于公共交通疏散风险评估方法和管控策略为研究目标，通过项目研究，建立了封闭受限空间中人群运动实验方法；开展了真实交通工具内部人员疏散观测、公交车停靠与乘客上下车观测、超高层建筑楼梯间垂直疏散等一系列实验；建立了公交车疏散风险数学模型、公交车拥挤风险系数和阈值计算方法、考虑火灾烟气对人体影响的人员疏散多格子模型、群体局部聚集的熵模型及分析方法、密集人群渗流模型及渗流临界密度分析方法等一系列理论模型和方法；从实践应用角度，建立了中国高铁CRH380AL型列车、城市双层公交车的计算机疏散模型并开展了模拟研究，从策略应对角度，建立了公交车火灾事故致因风险评价指标体系和基于案例推理的公交车火灾事故案例匹配方法。研究结果对揭示密集人群中个体运动规律、提取和量化疏散模型参数、识别疏散影响因素、评估公交车火灾疏散风险、设计乘客数量预警系统、设计公共交通内部空间、防范应对公共交通火灾事故等方面，具有重要的参考价值。

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