城市旅游流与旅游效率的时空关系及其作用机制研究——以长江三角洲地区为例

A city is the convergence center of tourist flow and the output center of tourism efficiency. On the basis of quantifying urban tourist flow and tourism efficiency, how to clarify the time-space relationship between them and reveal the mechanism of urban tourist flow responding to tourism efficiency, so as to take reasonable guidance to spatial tourist flow and improve tourism efficiency, has become an important scientific problem worried to be solved. The project builds a research framework of relationship between urban tourist flow and tourism efficiency, which is based on the measurement of urban tourism flow and efficiency, taking the model construction of relationship between urban tourist flow and tourism efficiency as the key, with the support of online data mining and social network analysis techniques, and falls the foot in revealing the influencing mechanism between urban tourist flow and tourism efficiency. Choosing Yangtze River Delta as a typical research region, with the aid of a variety of techniques and approaches such as mathematical modeling, GIS spatial analysis, system dynamics and so on, through exploring the time-space relationship between urban tourist flow and tourism efficiency, and building the measurement model of relationship between them, the paper reveals the implicit mode of action and internal mechanism, further expands the research angle of urban tourism and deepens the knowledge of the mechanism of the relationship between urban tourist flow and tourism efficiency. The study will promote the matching integration development from the relational data into spatial data of urban tourist flow, the research scale extending from relatively single tourism city to tourism region, the research contents turning from the pure measurement of tourist flow and tourism efficiency to the relationship between tourist flow and tourism efficiency, and will promote the data processing technique innovation from traditional statistical data collection to data mining technology, so that it can enrich the theoretical connotation and methodology system of studying the relationship between tourism geography and economic geography, then providing the decision-making reference for speeding up the coordinated development of regional tourism.

城市是旅游流汇聚和旅游效率产出的中心。如何在量化城市旅游流与旅游效率的基础上，厘清城市旅游流与旅游效率的时空关系，揭示城市旅游效率对旅游流的响应机制，从而合理的引导游客空间流动，提升旅游效率成为亟待解决的重要科学问题。本项目以城市旅游流与旅游效率测度为基础，以城市旅游流与旅游效率的关系模型构建为关键，以在线数据挖掘与社会网络分析技术为支撑，以城市旅游流与旅游效率的作用机制揭示为落脚点，构建城市旅游流与旅游效率关系的研究框架。以长江三角洲为典型研究区，借助数学建模、GIS空间分析、系统动力学等多种技术与方法，探讨城市旅游流与旅游效率的时空关系，建立面板数据体系下城市旅游流与旅游效率关系的计量模型，揭示隐含的作用方式与内在机理，进一步拓展城市旅游的研究视角，深化对城市旅游流与旅游效率关系的机理认识，丰富旅游地理学与经济地理学关系研究的理论内涵与方法体系，为加快区域旅游协调发展提供决策参考。

城市作为旅游业发展的重要物质载体，为游客流动提供了必要的空间场所，学术界对旅游客流广泛关注的同时，也注意到旅游效率对旅游流的响应关系。那么，如何揭示旅游流与旅游效率的时空关系，挖掘隐含的内在机理，成为旅游地理学亟待解决的重要科学命题。鉴于此，本项目从旅游流和旅游效率的测度入手，以长三角为典型案例进行实地调研，并结合数据挖掘技术，重点围绕城市旅游效率、景区旅游效率、城市旅游流等主题进行深入研究，为旅游流与旅游效率关系的深刻剖析奠定基础。. 经过三年的不懈努力，课题组取得了较为丰富的研究成果，研究内容包括了旅游效率的相关理论与模型构建研究、旅游效率的影响因素与机理研究以及旅游流的相关理论与测度模型研究。具体表现在旅游效率及其分解效率的时空格局、旅游增长的非均衡性与收敛、城市旅游业绩效（效率）空间格局、旅游效率的多尺度波动、入境旅游周期波动特征、经济波动对旅游效率及其分解效率的影响机制、基于交通大数据的碳排放流的测度、基于大数据分析的城市旅游地网络结构特征以及城市旅游流网络结构等方面。通过上述内容的深化和研究，课题组发现，当今的社会是一个流动的社会，尤其是随着互联网技术的革新，引发了一场信息技术带来的地理学革命，“网络范式”的转型和“流空间”的科学认知的不断升温，开始逐步转向信息技术引领下的网络空间及其在地理学中的意义的深刻探讨。课题组还发现，无论是旅游规模效率还是旅游纯技术效率，均存在着相对较低的情况，规模投资的不经济效应显著，加强技术方式更新和集约化发展成为未来主导方向。. 在项目的资助下，课题组在国内外学术期刊发表论文19篇，出版专著1部，其中，SCI索引论文1篇，SSCI索引论文2篇，国内权威和核心期刊发表16篇，参加国内学术会议两次，人才培养方面取得较好进展。

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