基于生产要素集聚的中小城镇发展模式研究

In the context of new-type urbanization and ecological civilization construction in China, mid- and small-sized urban settlements become the main part of China’s new-type urbanization which has the characteristics of intensive, smart and low-carbon development. By accelerating the development of those mid- and small-sized cities and towns, the serious so-called “big city sickness” could be effectively alleviated, and the rural residents would become urban residents as near as possible, meanwhile, it is a very important way to achieve the goal of urban and rural integration in the long run. Therefore, this project will focus on the urban settlements at county and town levels to develop our researches. Firstly, the system integrating method with qualitative and quantitative analysis is used to illustrate the evolution process, the status quo and the problems of mid- and small-sized cities and towns from the perspectives of core production factors (labor, land and capital), new production factors (information, knowledge and technology) and traditional driving factors (resources, market and policy) under the background of traditional urbanization. Secondly, it is revealed that what the interacting mechanism of the three factors and their internal elements is and what the dynamic evolution rule is. Thirdly, optimizing and simulating the optional paths of mid- and small-sized urban settlements development models driven by multi-link, multi-group and multi-factor via using SD model, from the view of ecological, production and living factors gathering. Fourthly, establishing integrated decision-making supporting system of mid- and small-sized urban settlements development models that supported by multi-objective decision-making, and choosing six regions in the east, middle and west of China as pilot and demonstration cases. Finally, and furthermore, a mid- and small-sized urban settlements development theory system with Chinese characteristics would be concluded, and relevant policy suggestions and recommendations would be proposed.

在新型城镇化和生态文明建设大背景下，加快中小城镇发展是国家走集约、智能、绿色、低碳的新型城镇化道路的主体，是有效缓解我国“大城市病”高发突发、就近就地实现农民市民化和实现城乡发展一体化的重要手段。本项目着重从县镇层次，以劳动力、土地和资本为中小城镇发展的核心生产要素，以信息、知识、技术等为新型生产要素，采用定性与定量有机结合的系统集成方法，系统分析传统城镇化背景下中小城镇发展过程、现状及困境；揭示中小城镇发展的核心生产要素、新型生产要素和传统驱动要素之间以及内部各因子之间相互作用机理与动态演变规律；从生态-生产-生活要素集聚的三维视角，采用SD模型优化模拟多链多群多要素驱动下中小城镇发展模式选择路径；建立多目标决策支持下的中小城镇发展模式集成决策支持系统，并选择东、中、西部的6个案例地区进行中小城镇发展模式的试验示范；进而总结出具有中国特色的中小城镇发展理论体系，提出相关政策建议。

加快中小城镇发展是协调实施新型城镇化与乡村振兴战略的必然要求，是促进城乡融合发展和就近就地城镇化的重要手段。本项目系统分析了我国城市规模划分新标准的适用性、局限性及应用误区，测算出我国2010年和2000年基于新标准的城市规模划分结果，构建了具有空间可比性的全国分县市中小城镇发展自然环境和社会经济数据库，可为中小城镇学术研究提供规范性基础数据支持。深入分析1982-2015年中国城镇人口镇化发展的时空分异及影响因素，测算出2015年镇化水平为41.8%，2010-2015年期间镇化贡献率为55.1%，发现中国的城镇人口“镇化水平”和“镇化贡献率”在不断提升，镇化主导型县市占全国国土面积的70%以上。发现在1990-2010年期间我国小城市人口规模增长极为缓慢，对全国城市化发展的贡献几近于无；但中小城市比大城市的蔓延程度更为严重，其人均城市土地变化率分别是特大城市和大城市的2.08倍和1.67倍。选择东、中、西部的6个案例地区进行典型案例研究，发现：就业收入、流入年限、年龄等因素是影响义乌市流动人口长居意愿的重要因素；就业收入、公共服务、生活环境等方面的不足是荆门城市人口集聚乏力的关键因素。开展国家新型城镇化综合区划，将全国城镇化区域划分为五大区、47个亚区，有利于因地因类制宜地指导不同类型地区按照差异化发展方式推进新型城镇化健康发展。

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