长江三角洲集装箱港口体系转型发展的空间组织机理

The transformation and development of container port systems can be regarded as the inevitable status and process leading toward the space re-combination of transportation function and logistic service function. Since 1990s, an unprecedented space transformation has occurred to the world's major container port systems, which can be observed in various respects - the upgrade from central hub ports to the global supply chain centers, the emergence of multi-port gateway regions, re-distribution of the port logistic function, etc.. This project aiming at container port system in Yangtze River Delta is based on the method of "theoretical hypothesis - scientific evidence - model derivation and validation", which could provide measurement and analysis upon the intensity and direction of traffic, routes, port and shipping logistics service elements in order to distinguish and identify the contribution of critical driving elements during different stages of development is possible, and eventually makes it possible to unveil the dynamic mechanism throughout the process. On this basis, we would further exert a space-time coupling analysis upon the process of space transformation of port systems and the social and economic development differentiation process of zones affected directly by ports, evaluating the rationality of the transformation and development, and put forward optimizing methods of control and policy recommendations. The objective of the project is to build up a bridge between domestic and foreign researches by providing distinctive angles and examples based on practical situation in China. We also expect to form a solid scientific basis upon which China's coastal container port system transformation and development process can be guided.

集装箱港口体系的转型发展，是其在一定阶段后必然出现的一种运输功能和后勤服务功能空间重组的状态和过程。1990年代以来，全球主要集装箱港口体系发生了空前的空间转型，主要表现为：中心枢纽港向全球供应链中心升级、多港口门户区出现、港口后勤功能再配置，等等。本项目拟以长江三角洲集装箱港口体系为对象，采用"理论假设-科学实证-模型推导与验证"的探究方式，通过测度与分析运量、航线和港航后勤服务要素在空间上转型集疏的强度和方向，甄别与辩识转型发展不同阶段的关键驱动要素贡献度，从而揭示其动力机制；在此基础上，对空间转型集疏过程与港口直接影响区社会经济发展分异过程进行时空耦合分析，评价转型发展的合理性，进而提出相关的优化调控方式和政策性建议。其目的是与国际前沿研究接轨，为世界港口地理学研究提供中国视角和中国范例，同时为我国沿海集装箱港口体系转型发展提供科学依据。

采用定量与定性相结合的方法，从运量、航线和港航后勤服务要素三个维度，对长三角集装箱港口体系转型发展格局、影响机制等进行了比较系统的研究。.1、基尼系数、运量重心偏移法、半径维数法、R/S分析等多种模型的分析表明，长三角集装箱港口体系吞吐量正由集中收敛格局向均衡分散格局转型，边缘港挑战明显，但这一过程是在运量高度集中化的背景下展开的。港口体系空间演化呈多阶段并存的特征，整体处于Hayuth“五阶段”模型的枢纽中心阶段向边缘港挑战阶段的过渡期。.2、赫希曼-赫芬达尔指数分析显示，班轮航线及航线密度总体上均呈现出分散化特征，但不同类型航线的集散特征不同。远洋航线分散化趋势相对缓慢，近洋航线和沿海航线的分散速度较快；长江内支线总体上呈现出空间集聚态势。目前以上海港和宁波舟山港为综合性枢纽港、以南京港和太仓港等为区域性中转枢纽港、以扬州港和镇江港等为支线喂给港的轴辐式集装箱航运网络已经形成。.3、港口服务业结构转型指数、最邻近指数（NNI）、差值模拟等的分析显示，高端后勤要素增速明显高于中、低端要素，整体由低层次向高层次转型，但增速和持续性不尽相同。港口后勤要素在区域层面呈现集聚趋势，而在城市层面呈现分散特征；高端类要素倾向于向产业层次较高的枢纽港口城市转移，传统低端类要素倾向于向产业层次较低的一般港口城市转移。低端类港口后勤服务要素的区位选择具有较强的沿江、沿海指向，中、高端类后勤要素分布更加分散；中、小型港口城市低端类要素的增速较快，而大、中型港口城市高端类要素的增速显著。.4、集装箱港口体系的空间转型可以归纳为初始、发展和成熟三阶段演化模型，每一阶段的集装箱港口体系运量、航线和后勤要素的空间转型过程表现出明显差异；其发展演化是受到外部机制（全球化、市场化、信息化和服务化）和内部机制（内驱机制、港口之间竞合机制和本地约束响应机制）的综合影响。目前长三角港口体系空间转型整体处于第二阶段中后期。

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