基于顾客选择行为的疫苗类生物制品供应链决策与绩效研究

Infectious diseases such as influenza spread around the world in seasonal epidemics and impose a considerable economic burden in the forms of hospital and other health care costs and lost productivity. To effectively control the epidemics has become the most challenging task faced by the publich health management department around the world. For example, there were 121, 843 H1N1 flu cases reported in China in 2009, among which there were 654 deaths. Vaccination is a principal tool for controlling the spread of infectious diseases such as influenza. Yet vaccination also brings operational challenges to the vaccine supply chain, which include the random yield in production, the demand dynamics, the risk attitude of supply chain agents as well as the government intervention. In response to these challenges, our research combines epidemic models, consumer choice theory, game theory, contract theory and optimization theory to study the decisions and performance of the vaccine supply chain. First, we plan to explore the interaction between the consumer choice behavior and the epidemic spreading dynamics. Then, considering the operational challenges faced by the vaccine supply chain, we plan to study how the consumer choice behavior will affect the decisions and performance of the supply chain and to derive the optimal supply chain decisions. Last, we plan to study the information sharing and supply chain coordination mechanism for the vaccine supply chain. We aim to find out appropriate contracts and mechanism to coordinate the vaccine supply chain in the presence of consumer choice and information asymmetry. Our research will contribute to the literature by combining consumer choice behavior and epidemic spreading dynamics to study the decisions and performance of the vaccine supply chain. We believe that a good understanding of the interaction between consumer choice behavior and epidemic spreading dynamics, which we intend to develop in our proposed research, will help to improve the management of the vaccine supply chain, guide the government in effectively controlling the epidemics, and thereby be of extreme importance to the health of people.

快速传播的流感等传染病给人们健康带来了威胁，增加了经济负担，降低了社会生产率，给公共卫生管理部门带来了严峻的挑战。例如，2009年全年我国感染甲型H1N1流感病例121,843例，死亡病例654例。免疫则是应对传染病最有效的控制方式。本项目基于现实需要以疫苗类生物制品供应链为研究对象，结合传染病传播动力学理论及顾客选择理论，应用博弈论、契约理论以及优化理论，探索顾客选择行为与传染病传播相互影响机制；考虑需求动态变化、供应风险及供应链成员的风险态度等疫苗供应链的特点，探索顾客选择行为对供应链决策的影响，寻求最佳供应链决策；研究信息不对称下基于顾客选择行为的疫苗类生物制品供应链信息共享及协调机制。本项目的研究将拓展供应链领域的理论和方法，有助于了解顾客选择行为对疫苗类生物制品供应链决策和绩效的影响，为政府有效管理疫苗类生物制品供应链以应对传染病威胁，提升人们的健康水平具有重要的现实意义。

本研究的主要成果包括：针对顾客选择行为及疫苗生产产出的不确定性，建立了包含顾客选择行为的疫苗类生物制品供应链管理的基本框架；刻画顾客选择行为下疫苗类生物制品的需求，刻画顾客选择行为下疫苗类制造企业的最优生产策略，刻画了顾客选择行为下政府部门的最优决策；扩展基于顾客选择行为下包含疫苗类供应链之外的其他供应链管理模型，研究其他顾客选择行为下的供应链管理。在研究成果的基础上，已在国内外学术刊物上出版著作及发表期刊论文15篇，其中：国际重要刊物11篇、国际著名出版社出版专著1部、国内著名出版社出版译著1部、国内核心刊物2篇；另有一些论文正在审稿中，还有一批论文即将投稿。参加多次国际会议，发表EI会议论文7篇。在理论研究的同时，我们还特别注意将理论成果应用于解决许多具体的实际问题。

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