我国流动人口的再流动及城镇化空间效应研究

Migration in China has entered a new stage in which the total number of domestic migrants has remained relatively constant, but the ways through which they migrate have become increasingly diversified. This special characteristic indicates that the migration pattern of existing migrants, especially that of repeat migrants, is the key to the understanding of the population distribution and to the making of new urbanism. Therefore, the objective of this project is to analyze the spatial pattern of, the influencing factors behind, and the urbanization effect resulted from, the repeat migration. Specifically, it will first define the different kinds of migration in China by adopting and adjusting the corresponding international definitions. These tailored definitions will serve as the basis for the investigation of the compositional evolution of Chinese migration, the spatial pattern of repeat migration, and the characteristics of different migration groups. All these analyses will be based on census microdata. Second, this project will explore the separate and interactive impacts of individual-family factors, city-region developments, and national-local policies on the decision-making process of repeat migrants, and thus on the spatial pattern of repeat migration. This part will mainly use the data from the national surveys, such as Migrants Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey Data, and also from surveys conducted in strategic urban agglomerations. It will also use interviews to delve into more nuanced aspects. Finally, this work will systematically evaluate the impact of repeat migration on the contemporary urbanization patterns as well as future ones, which has special significance in utilizing the practices of the making of new urbanism. In total, the results of this project will not only have a theoretical contribution to China’s urbanization in particular and migration studies in general, but also have practical implications for migrant workers’ citizenization and more broadly for new urbanism in China.

我国人口流动进入总量稳定、形式多元的新时代，存量流动人口的再流动对未来人口分布和新型城镇化空间战略目标的实现具有重要意义。本项目关注人口再流动的空间格局、动力机制和城镇化空间效应。首先，在理论分析和国际比较的基础上，基于人口普查个体数据科学界定各类流动人口，描绘我国人口流动类型结构的演变趋势，分析人口再流动的时空格局与群体分异。其次，利用全国和典型城市群的人口再流动问卷调查和访谈数据，在个体和区域两个层面上探究个体-家庭因素、城市-区域发展、国家-地方政策及其交互作用如何影响人口再流动的行为决策、塑造人口再流动的空间格局。最后，系统评估人口再流动对当前和未来我国城镇化空间格局的影响，提出新型城镇化空间战略实现的政策优化和优先级建议。研究成果可丰富中国特色城镇化与人口流动迁移的理论方法，也可为我国流动人口市民化和新型城镇化发展提供认识依据和决策参考。

我国正在经历人口迁移流动的重大转变，存量流动人口的再流动研究对中国特色新型城镇化的理论发展和实践推进都有重要意义。本项目首先考察了流动人口的就业质量提升和社会融入状况，二者是影响流动人口再流动决策的关键基础。从居留/再流动、落户/再流动的二元抉择到“再流动去哪里”的空间决策，从“是否打算再流动”的主观意愿到“是否真的再流动”的客观行为，构建了解析流动人口再流动决策过程和内在机理的总体框架。从人地关系的视角，聚焦于人口流动/再流动过程中的“人口—城市”互动效应，在理论上构建了双重多维邻近性的空间决策解释框架，在方法上探索多层线性模型和嵌套离散选择模型在人地关系研究中的应用，并开展再流动决策过程的多项实证研究，验证了理论方法的有效性。将人口再流动的理论实证研究置于我国人口迁移转变的宏观背景下，探讨了影响地区人口流入流出的新因素。最后，在全国、城市群等不同空间尺度探讨了人口流动新模式对就业、人口、用地等多要素空间格局的影响，剖析了人口流动影响城镇化空间形态的多重效应。研究成果有助于丰富中国人口迁移流动模式和新型城镇化研究的理论方法，能够为相关政策的制定实施提供参考。

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