贫困地区耕地利用转型对经济发展的驱动机理研究

There are a series of problems such as quantity reduction, quality degradation and extensive utilization of cultivated land in poverty-stricken areas during agricultural development, which has become an important bottleneck hindering regional economic development and poverty alleviation. It is of great significance to promote the cultivated land use transition which can promote the sustainable utilization of cultivated land, economic growth and poverty alleviation in poverty-stricken areas. The existing researches mainly focus on the evaluation of cultivated land use transition impact on economic development. There is lack of analysis on the driving mechanism of cultivated land use transition to economic development, which is difficult to provide precision guidance for poverty alleviation in poverty-stricken areas. Based on the accumulated research on cultivated land use transition, this project will build a multidimensional evaluation index system to analyze spatial and temporal characteristics of cultivated land use transition in poverty-stricken areas at regional scale and county scale. Two measurement models to evaluate the effect utility of cultivated land use transition on economic development are built, and the key factors of different scales are identified. Acorrding to the ways of each factor affect economic development, the driving mechanism of cultivated land use transition to economic development is revealed at regional scale and county scale. The macro controlling strategy and differential control measures of cultivated land use transition in poverty-stricken areas are put forward .The research results are helpful to deepen the theoretical understanding of internal relationship between cultivated land use transition and poverty alleviation, and provide guidance for economic development and poverty alleviation in poverty-stricken areas.

贫困地区存在耕地数量减少、质量退化和粗放利用等问题，不仅影响着农业经济发展，也阻碍着区域经济增长和扶贫开发的顺利推进。科学推动耕地转型利用，对保障贫困地区耕地有效利用、促进经济增长和脱贫致富意义重大。现有研究大多聚焦于耕地利用转型对经济发展的影响评估，关于耕地利用转型对经济发展的驱动机理研究尚显不足，难以对贫困地区扶贫开发提供精准指导。基于团队在耕地利用转型方面的积累，本项目拟通过构建多维测度指标体系，实现区域尺度和县域尺度下贫困地区耕地利用转型的时空分异特征分析；构建计量模型评价耕地利用转型对经济发展的影响，识别不同尺度的关键影响因素；探索各因素影响经济发展的路径，揭示区域尺度和县域尺度耕地利用转型对经济发展的驱动机理；并提出贫困地区耕地利用转型的宏观调控策略和差异化管控措施。研究成果有助于深化对耕地利用转型与扶贫开发内在联系的理论认识，可为促进贫困地区经济发展和扶贫开发提供决策参考。

科学推动耕地利用转型是贫困地区促进经济发展的重要途径，对保障耕地资源可持续利用和粮食安全，推动乡村振兴具有重大意义。本研究在系统分析耕地利用转型国内外研究现状的基础上，结合对研究区鄂西地区的实地调研成果，解析了耕地利用转型的概念内涵，阐明了基础理论体系。从功能形态和空间形态两方面构建了耕地利用转型的评价指标体系，利用线性加权法测度了耕地利用转型状况，发现其整体呈现出波动性的时间演化特征和南低北高的空间分布特征。利用改进的径向基神经网络模型和面板数据模型分别测度了区域尺度和县域尺度下耕地利用转型对经济发展的影响，并识别了关键影响因素，发现在区域尺度下耕地功能形态相关指标是关键因素，而各个县域的关键因素不尽一致，表明在区域尺度下是耕地功能转型主导驱动而耕地空间转型间接驱动经济发展，县域尺度下主导驱动因素和间接驱动因素存在差异。同时，阐明了各因素影响经济发展的路径，系统揭示了两种尺度下耕地利用转型对经济发展的驱动机理。最后，在区域尺度上，从推动耕地生态转型发展，优化耕地利用结构，加强国土综合整治等方面提出了研究区耕地利用转型的宏观调控策略，并从县域尺度针对各个县市实际情况提出了耕地利用转型的差异化管控措施。研究结果不仅有助于深化对耕地利用转型与经济发展内在联系的理论认识，还可从耕地利用视角为促进贫困地区经济增长和乡村振兴提供科学参考。

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