基于复杂网络理论的地铁盾构施工诱发环境风险的时空演化机理与规律研究

Based on the complex network theory and huge multisource heterogeneous data from the metro shield tunneling construction, this research project aims to investigate the spatio-temporal evolution mechanism of the urban environment safety risk and disaster induced by metro shield construction under the combined effect of human, machine and environmental factors using theoretical models, quantitative analysis and site validations. Based on the complex network theory, the method for spatio-temporal relationship measurement of the environment safety risk factors during metro shield construction will be developed. Additionally, considering spatio-temporal coupling, a general complex network model of the environment safety risk factors during metro shield construction will be exploited to effectively solve the randomness in determining the risk induced mechanism as well as the absence of the spatio-temporal attribution in existing urban environment safety risk assessment. Furthermore, an analytical method of the characteristic and dynamic effect in the complex network of the environment safety risk factors during metro shield construction will be investigated, and the quantitative models of causing probability and diffusion degree under the combined effect of human, machine and environmental factors will be established, and the limit state equation of fatigue damage will be formulated based on the structural reliability theory. The time-variant characteristic of the probabilistic model of stress spectra and the deterioration model of the fatigue resistance will be investigated. A spatio-temporal risk assessment and prediction method for the urban environment safety risk and disaster induced by metro shield construction based on the complex network theory will be formulated. The results of this research project will discover the spatio-temporal evolution law of the urban environment safety risk induced by metro shield construction, and provide a basis for the dynamical control and early-warning in urban metro construction, which have a great value in theoretical development and practical significance.

本项目以复杂网络理论为基础，利用地铁盾构施工过程中产生的海量、多源、异构的工程数据，应用理论建模、定量分析和现场验证相结合的方法，围绕人-机-环多因素共同作用下地铁盾构诱发环境安全风险与事故灾害的时空演化机理这一关键科学问题开展系统性研究。基于复杂网络理论，提出盾构诱发环境风险影响因素的时空相关性测度方法，建立考虑时空耦合的地铁盾构诱发环境安全风险的影响因素复杂网络模型，有效解决地铁盾构环境风险评估现存的致险机理难以确定和时空属性缺失的问题。研究针对地铁盾构施工环境风险影响因素的复杂网络统计特征和动力学分析方法，建立人-机-环多因素共同作用下的地铁盾构环境安全风险的诱发概率和扩散程度模型，形成基于复杂网络的地铁盾构施工环境安全风险的时空估计与预测方法。本项目研究成果将揭示地铁盾构诱发环境安全风险的时空演化规律，为地铁盾构施工环境风险的动态控制和预警提供依据，具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。

本项目以复杂网络理论为基础，利用地铁盾构施工过程中产生的海量、多源、异构的工程数据，应用理论建模、定量分析和现场验证相结合的方法，围绕人-机-环多因素共同作用下地铁盾构诱发环境安全风险与事故灾害的时空演化机理这一关键科学问题开展系统性研究。本项目揭示了地铁盾构施工诱发环境安全风险与事故灾害的影响因素、时空分布特征和变化规律，建立了考虑时空耦合的地铁盾构诱发环境安全风险的影响因素复杂网络模型，提出了针对地铁盾构施工环境风险影响因素的复杂网络统计特征和动力学分析方法，构建了复杂环境下基于物联网与数据驱动的地铁盾构施工环境安全风险的主动控制方法。本项目所取得的研究进展及重要成果有助于控制和规避城市地铁盾构施工环境风险事件和事故灾害的发生，对于预防和减少地铁施工安全事故及其造成的人员财产损失、保证城市地铁施工的安全顺利进行，积极发展和科学有序推进城市轨道交通建设，具有重大的工程应用价值和现实意义。

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