复杂电力系统的连锁反应事故研究

The project is satisfactorily completed and the research plan is expanded partially according to the new development of the power system. The main achievements are as follows: The concept of cascading fault is first introduced into power system reliability evaluation, which creates a new research field. The mechanisms of cascading fault are fully studied. Especially, combining the topology of the network with bus schemes of the power substation, the cascading model of the bulk power systems is established firstly. An efficient evaluation algorithm is then developed, which takes all causes of cascading faults into consideration. A new variance reduction technique of Monte-Carlo simulation-fission and roulette method, a new hybrid method combining analytical and Monte Carlo method with the complete sampling technique are investigated. As a result, the contrariety of computational effort and accuracy is solved well. Furthermore, the project establishs the probabilistic model and algorithm of available transfer capacity of the transmission network and suggests an equivalent approach of a complex distribution system, which has been used to the reconfiguration of a real system. All of the above results have been applied to the practical power system.

本项目针对目前复杂电力系统不断发生的连锁反应事故，将全面系统地研究这类事故发生的机理，建立预测和校验该类事故的理论和方法，并提出相应的指标，开发出校验电力系统连锁反应事故的应用软件。该项目的研究首次在复杂电力系统可靠性评估中考虑了连锁事故的影响，这对预测连锁事故的发生和提高系统的安全运行水平具有十分重要的现实意义。

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