基于初始P波具有物理意义的地震预警方法研究

Earthquake early warning is of a very significant academic value and practical demand, which has been highly evaluated and developed in recent years around the world. However, the existing early warning methods have the unsolved issues in reliability, timeliness and applicability, due to the lack of clear physical meaning and theoretical basis study. By means of analysis on the seismic data of good quality in different regions, research on the formation of strong motion and simulation of the 3D broadband ground motion, this project intends to study the physical meaning and theoretical mechanism of using the initial P-wave to predict the earthquake parameters and clarify the application conditions for such warning methods, the feasibility of using the initial P-wave for the earthquake early warning of large earthquakes. Based on above the earthquake early warning method of high precision is proposed, and so as to provide a scientific basis for the establishment of a more reasonable earthquake early warning system that accords with the environment characteristics to prevent and reduce social infrastructure disasters.

地震预警研究具有非常重要的学术价值和应用需求，近年来得到国内外高度重视和发展，但是既有地震预警方法普遍存在可靠性、时效性及适用性等问题，原因在于缺乏明确的物理意义和理论依据研究。本项目拟采用不同地区高质量地震数据解析，基于强震动形成理论分析，以及三维宽频带地震动模拟等手段，研究把握利用初始P波预测地震参数的物理意义与理论机理，研究厘清地震预警方法的适用条件，并研究探讨基于P波对大地震预警的可行性，进而提出基于初始P波的具有物理意义的高精度地震预警方法，为建立符合地震环境特点的地震预警系统和社会基础设施抗震减灾提供科学依据。

地震预警研究具有非常重要的学术价值和应用需求，近年来得到国内外高度重视和发展，目前大部分预警方法缺乏明确的物理意义与理论机理，导致地震预警存在可靠性、时效性以及适用性等方面的问题，相关研究成果较少。我国已经开展对包括重大工程在内的预警系统研究与构建，但同样面临需要研发成熟且可靠的预警理论与方法。本项目在国内外地震预警理论方法发展的基础上，根据地震环境等特点，采用具有明确背景信息的高质量地震数据解析，同时采用强震动形成理论分析等手段，分别研究提出基于初始P波预测震源参数和地震动参数的物理意义。揭示初始P波特征参数-震源参数-地震动参数的相关机理，对各类预警方法的可靠性和适用性做出评价，厘清预警方法的适用条件，并研究探讨了基于P波对大地震预警的可行性，同时开展了基于地震初始预警参数快速预测地震灾害的研究。通过本项目的研究，提出了基于初始P波的具有物理意义的高精度地震预警方法，为建立符合地震环境特点的地震预警系统和社会基础设施抗震减灾提供科学依据。

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