清至民国长江中下游地区重大水灾的社会影响传递过程

Flood disaster is a typical extreme climate event and has been a serious threat to the socioeconomic sustainable development. Based on historical documents and previous researches, the study designs a series of proxies to portray the processs of floods and the state of subsystems of human society (agriculture production, population, economy, society, etc.). The study is going to restore the spatio-temporal changes of rain processes, water regimens and disaster conditions for major flood events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 1644-1949. Then, we will identify the transmission path of floods’ impact in various subsystems of human society and its regional correlation mechanism. Finally, we analyze the main natural and social factors affecting the transmission path, as well as their spatio-temporal combinations and interactions on each other, which is crucial to understanding the difference of transmission path for different floods’ impact on society. This study can provide useful empirical cases to better understand the impact of extreme climate events and the mechanisms of human society in response and adaptation to climate change. It is also helpful to provide a historical reference for formulating countermeasures of the current and future disaster prevention and mitigation.

洪涝灾害作为典型的极端气候事件，一直严重威胁人类社会经济的可持续发展。本研究基于历史文献记录及相关研究成果，构建一系列刻画水灾过程及人类社会各子系统（如农业、人口、经济、社会等）状态的代用指标体系，复原清至民国（1644-1949）长江中下游地区重大水灾从雨情到水情再到灾情的时空过程，辨识灾害影响在人类社会各子系统中的传递路径及其区域关联机制，分析影响传递路径的主要自然和社会因素、各因素的耦合与互动关系及其对不同水灾案例的影响差异，为深化认识极端事件的社会影响与响应机制提供参考，并为当前及未来制定防灾减灾救灾对策提供历史借鉴。

基于地方志等多源史料文献，收集了清至民国（1644-1949）长江中下游等地区水灾、饥荒、粮价、社会动乱等记录25000余条，重点提取、构建了清代基于典型水灾案例及水灾长期变化及其社会影响的代用指标体系和数据。采用语义差异等方法重建了清代逐年水灾县次、饥荒指数等时间序列。在此基础上，复原了长江中下游地区1823年等极端水灾雨情-水情-灾情的灾害时空过程和社会响应过程。采用核密度指数等在县域尺度上复原了历史水灾及饥荒的空间分布及其时空格局演变过程。利用统计手段定量揭示了研究区不同时段、不同时空尺度上水灾对区域社会经济发展的影响，初步揭示了水灾影响在长江中下游与华北平原间的区域差异和关联机制。研究发现，无论是极端水灾事件还是水灾的长期变化，均可通过以影响农业和基础设施为起点的链式效应进一步影响区域经济、人口和社会系统，造成一系列短期和长期影响，不同自然和社会背景、人地矛盾、人类响应等都会改变水灾的影响传递过程。

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