成本分析视角下的我国钢铁行业碳减排实施路径与优化策略研究

As one of the energy-intensive industries, carbon emissions from iron and steel industry account for 15% of the national total, and the carbon emission reduction in iron and steel plays an important role in relieving emission reduction pressure in China. However, emission reduction without considering the cost will seriously restrict the development of iron and steel industry, and then slow down China’s economic development. Therefore, this project plans to investigate the implementation path of emission reduction in Chinese iron and steel industry from perspective of cost analysis, specifically including how to design emission reduction targets, how to allocate targets, how to develop technology and how to construct emission reduction modes. Attempting to achieve the following innovation results. (1) Establishing the integrated iron and steel industry---Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System, and evaluating the effect and economic cost of several carbon emission reduction policies; (2) Constructing carbon quota allocation strategies with comprehensive considering efficiency, cost and responsibility principles, and evaluating the allocation strategies from perspective of economic gains and energy saving; (3) With considering the collaborative effect of low carbon technology on other pollutants, investigating the path of technology popularization from cost minimization by employing mathematical programming approach; (4) Estimating the cost saving from cooperative carbon abatement among iron and steel enterprises, and proposing the allocation scheme of benefits from cooperative abatement by employing Shapley value approach. This project intends to provide some valuable suggestion for implementing scientific path of carbon emissions reduction in Chinese iron and steel industry.

作为能源密集型产业之一，钢铁行业的碳排放占据了我国总排放量的15%左右。钢铁行业的碳减排对缓解我国的减排压力具有重要作用。然而，不计成本的减排会严重制约钢铁行业的发展，进而影响我国经济的发展。为此，本项目以成本分析为视角，从如何制定减排目标、分配减排目标、发展减排技术、构建减排模式等方面探讨我国钢铁行业如何实施碳减排路径这一科学问题。试图取得如下创新成果：（1）构建集成的钢铁行业长期能源替代规划模型，评估多种减排政策的减排潜力及经济成本；（2）综合考虑效率、成本、责任原则，构建多元的碳配额分配策略，并从经济性和节能性的角度对多元的分配策略展开评价；（3）在考虑协同减排效应的基础上，借助数学规划方法从成本最小化的视角探讨钢铁行业低碳技术的推广路径规划问题；（4）构建钢铁企业合作减排成本节约评估模型，并提出基于Shapley值方法的合作减排收益分配方案。为我国钢铁行业实施科学的减排路提供建议。

中国钢铁工业实施高效的碳减排对提高经济发展质量、实现碳达峰碳中和目标具有重要意义。本项目围绕钢铁工业如何实施碳减排开展了如下几个方面的研究工作。首先，通过建立钢铁工业主要生产指标的数据库，构建了自下而上的中国钢铁行业LEAP模型（LEAP-IS-China）,分别探究了中国钢铁行业在基准情景、结构减排、技术减排和规模减排等情景下的碳排放路径和碳减排潜力；其次，将经济性原则、减排能力原则纳入了ZSG-DEA碳配额分配模型中，建立了钢铁工业碳配额的优化模型，提出了钢铁行业碳配额的优化方案；再次，通过构建空间双重差分模型，研究了碳交易政策对碳强度减排的溢出效应。. 结果表明，在基准情景下，钢铁工业2060年的碳排放值约为13.8亿吨，相比较2019年，大约下降了17.3%，减排潜力较大；结构减排情景下减排效果最好，其2060年的碳排放相比2019年下降幅度约为34.6%。中国省级钢铁工业的碳配额仍有待进一步优化，碳配额的利用效率较低。通过多次的迭代优化，所有地区钢铁工业的排放效率值均可达到1。特别地，在经济性原则下，2019年河北省钢铁工业获得了最多的碳配额，增长幅度达到了8.8%。与此同时，碳交易政策具有显著的溢出效应，能够有效地降低周边地区的工业碳强度。. 本项目的研究工作对丰富钢铁工业碳减排的理论体系、完善钢铁生产数据库和制订钢铁工业低碳政策具有重要理论意义和现实意义。项目也较好地完成了人才培养、学术交流和学术论文发表目标。.

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