基于建设用地扩张对区域粮食生产影响评估的主体功能区差别化管制研究 ——以江苏省为例

Construction land expansion led to quantity decrease, quality degradation and agricultural management level change, which is a direct threat to regional food security. Differentiated management for Major Function Oriented Zones is an important way to carry out the Development Plan, execute elaborative land management and ensure food security according to the impact assessment of construction land expansion on food production. But the research about the impact mechanism of construction land expansion on agricultural management level is poor discussed. Food supply-demand scenarios driven by construction land expansion should also be studied for the regional differentiated management policies formulation. This research takes Jiangsu province as the study site. Firstly, we will discuss the mechanism of construction land expansion on food production from cultivated land quantity, quality and agricultural management level perspectives respectively. Secondly, we will build an assessment model based on Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ) amendment to quantify the effect of construction land expansion on food production. Thirdly, we will measure the effect of construction land expansion on food production for different Major Function Oriented Zones. Finally, policies for regional differentiated management of construction land will be established, including Size Control, Land Intensity Standard, and Pattern Regulation, which is combined with regional food production and supply-demand status analysis driven by construction land expansion scenarios. Differentiated regulation polices of construction land for different regions will promote land management and food security.

建设用地扩张导致耕地数量减少、质量下降及管理水平变化，直接威胁区域粮食安全。基于建设用地扩张对区域粮食生产影响评估，制定主体功能区差别化的管制政策是落实主体功能区规划、实施土地精细化管理和保障粮食安全的重要途径。而现有研究涉及建设用地扩张对农业管理水平影响机制的较少，且缺乏基于建设用地扩张驱动下区域粮食供需情景分析的区域差别化的管制政策设计。因此，本项目以江苏省为实证区域，从耕地数量、质量及农业管理水平变化等方面研究建设用地扩张对粮食生产的影响机制，将其引入并修正农业生态区划模型(AEZ)，从而构建建设用地扩张对粮食生产影响评估模型，定量测度不同主体功能区建设用地扩张对粮食生产的影响，结合建设用地扩张情景驱动下区域粮食生产能力和供需状况分析，从总量控制、集约利用、格局优化等方面构建区域差别化的建设用地管制政策体系。主体功能区差别化的建设用地管制将有效推进土地的精细化管理、保障区域粮食安全。

建设用地扩张导致耕地数量减少、质量下降及管理水平变化，直接威胁区域粮食安全。基于建设用地扩张对区域粮食生产影响评估，制定主体功能区差别化的管制政策是落实主体功能区规划、实施土地精细化管理和保障粮食安全的重要途径。而现有研究涉及建设用地扩张对农业管理水平影响机制的较少，且缺乏基于建设用地扩张驱动下区域粮食供需情景分析的区域差别化的管制政策设计。因此，本项目以江苏省为实证区域，从耕地数量、质量及农业管理水平变化等方面研究建设用地扩张对粮食生产的影响机制，将其引入并修正农业生态区划模型(AEZ)，从而构建建设用地扩张对粮食生产影响评估模型，定量测度了不同主体功能区建设用地扩张对粮食生产的影响，结合建设用地扩张情景驱动下区域粮食生产能力和供需状况分析，从总量控制、集约利用、格局优化等方面构建了区域差别化的建设用地管制政策体系。主体功能区差别化的建设用地管制将有效推进土地的精细化管理、保障区域粮食安全。

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