拥堵环境下服务行为特征形成机理与排队系统控制策略研究：以三峡船闸为例

At present, there are more than 1000 ships waiting for lock in the Three Gorges Ship Lock on a daily basis, and the average waiting time for lock is more than eight days. The economic losses, safety risks, environmental pollution and group incident risks caused by ship congestion are very serious. It is urgent to study the strategy of ship congestion relief in the Three Gorges Ship Lock. This research is aimed at the service system of Three Gorges Ship Lock, and reveals the characteristics, causes and evolution mechanism of its service behavior through empirical and experimental research; uses Phase-type distribution, Markov process chain and Matrix-Geometric Method to study the influence of service behavior characteristics on the performance of Queuing service system; breaks through the existing queuing game equilibrium mechanism and the assumption of constant service rate between customers and service providers, and considers the state-dependent service rate and the benefit balance of the employees of the service providers, the queuing game equilibrium mechanism and model with the participation of customers, service providers and service providers are constructed. From the aspects of ship stopping strategy, optimal capacity of the locks, ship control, lock expansion and staff incentive, the specific strategies of ship congestion mitigation for the Three Gorges Lock are studied and put forward. This study will propose a four-step integrated research paradigm and theoretical optimization model for behavioral queuing system, which will help to form a new set of theories and methods for human resource allocation and management, and have important application prospects in improving service efficiency and reducing service costs.

目前长江三峡船闸日待闸船舶已超过千艘，船舶平均待闸时间超过八天，船舶拥堵引致的经济损失、安全隐患、环境污染和群体性事件风险等问题已十分严峻，迫切需要研究三峡船闸船舶拥堵疏解策略。本研究面向三峡船闸服务系统，通过实证和实验研究，揭示其服务行为的特性、成因和演化机制；采用位相分布、马氏过程链和矩阵几何法，研究服务行为特性对排队服务系统性能的影响；突破现有顾客和服务商双方排队博弈均衡机制和服务速率不变假设，考虑状态依从服务速率和服务商员工的利益权衡，构建顾客、服务商和服务商员工等三方或多方参与的排队博弈均衡机制和模型；从船舶止步策略，船闸方最优容量、船舶达到控制、船闸扩建和船闸员工激励等策略方面，研究提出三峡船闸船舶拥堵疏解的具体策略。本研究将提出行为排队系统四步骤一体化研究范式和理论优化模型，有助于形成一套人力资源配置与管理新的理论和方法，在提升服务业效率和降低服务成本方面有重要应用前景。

目前长江流域瓶颈航段拥堵严重，船舶拥堵引致的经济损失、安全隐患、环境污染和群体性事件风险等问题已十分严峻，迫切需要研究拥堵疏解策略。本研究针对长江全流域的开展相关研究，包括：1）长江上游区域经济、运输结构对三峡枢纽货运量的影响、三峡枢纽过坝货运量的预测模型；2）构建长江干线货运需求生成、分布、转移以及分配运输量“四阶段”预测模型；3）考虑到船舶对码头的呼叫、潮汐和导航规则以及船舶配置，并设计了一个“双时钟”机制来解决预排队优化问题，通过仿真考察不同航道疏浚方案对于长江口航道通航的影响。此外，还对政府和社会资本的多方博弈进行研究，包括：1）铁水联运项目中铁路公司、水路公司以及政府方由于各自的利益不同而在项目进行的过程中形成博弈均衡现象，通过建模并求得均衡解得到管理学启示；2）考察公平偏好对于铁水联运项目中多方博弈模型的影响；3）针对PPP项目中双重信息不对称带来的道德风险和逆向选择，根据显示原理设计了三阶段契约机制，并考虑公平偏好的影响。

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