人-信息-能量耦合的城市能源互联网灾变分析与动态预警

Local, simple and even weak failures and faults of the urban energy Internet can all be transmitted to other subsystems through information and energy spaces, which may in turn lead to catastrophic risks from small to large scale, from single system to multi-system, and from minor accidents to paralysis. There is, therefore, an urgent need to study the various approaches of catastrophic analysis. In the background of the urban energy Internet based on human-in-the-loop energy information fusion, this project aims at quantifying the potential catastrophic risks of the human-information-energy coupling system and realizing dynamic early warning for catastrophe. By focusing on the study of interaction mechanism analysis and hybrid modeling of urban energy internet, this research puts forward a calculation method of urban energy Internet probabilistic energy flow based on the dynamic probability model. Then, according to the safety analysis under multiple uncertainties, which reveals the mechanism of catastrophe propagation and evolution across the human-information-energy space, a catastrophe analysis method of coupling system is proposed. Finally, the comprehensive simulation of urban energy Internet catastrophe analysis and early warning is carried out, and the "catastrophe analysis and dynamic early warning system" is developed to verify the validity of the theoretical methods. The expected achievements of this project can provide theoretical support for the planning and operations of the urban energy internet.

城市能源互联网局部的、简单的、微弱的故障或失效都可能通过信息和能量空间传递到其他子系统，存在由小范围到大范围、由单系统波及多系统、由小事故引发大瘫痪的灾变风险，亟待开展灾变分析研究。本项目以人在回路能源信息融合下的城市能源互联网为背景，以量化人-信息-能量耦合系统的潜在灾变风险、实现灾变动态预警为目标，重点开展城市能源互联网交互机理分析与混合建模研究，提出基于动态概率模型的城市能源互联网概率能流计算方法；接着，通过多重不确定性下的安全分析，揭示跨人-信息-能量空间的灾变传播与演化机理，并提出耦合系统的灾变分析方法；在此基础上，研究表征城市能源互联网局部和整体抗灾变状态的指标和评估方法，提出基于人工免疫系统的灾变动态预警机制；最后，开展城市能源互联网灾变分析与预警的综合仿真，研发“灾变分析与动态预警系统”，对理论方法进行验证。项目预期成果可为城市能源互联网的规划运营提供理论支撑。

随着多种能源的深度耦合、信息技术的深度应用以及多元用能主体的深度参与，城市能源互联网（综合能源系统）已成为典型的人-信息-物理系统（Human-cyber-physical System, HCPS），人在回路、信息系统和能量系统之间的复杂耦合会给系统安全可靠运行带来巨大影响。鉴于此，本项目从HCPS的视角将能源物理特性、信息空间、用户回路进行有机协同，重点研究了能源信息物理系统的可靠性评估、经济损失评估、脆弱性评估、安全风险评估与预警、故障诊断辨识方法，开展了能源互联网灾变分析与风险预警的综合仿真测试，揭示了人在回路能源信息物理系统的特性规律，构筑了能源互联网灾变评估与安全防护技术体系，对保障城市能源互联网（综合能源系统）的安全可靠运行具有理论和实际意义。未来，对能源互联网综合安全分析与防护技术的需求将持续上升，本项目研究成果具有社会和经济两方面的推广价值，具有广阔的应用前景。.项目共发表SCI期刊论文5篇、EI期刊论文8篇、英文会议论文2篇；申请发明专利5项（已获授权2项），完成项目预定目标。项目培养在读博士研究生2人；培养毕业硕士研究生8人、在读硕士研究生6人，完成项目预定目标。

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