电力零售交易机制设计及个性化用户套餐定制研究

To replace the traditional price regulation model, our electricity market reform aims to create an open and competitive electricity retailing market through the introduction of retailors, and then gradually enable customers to freely choose their electricity providers. Under the market mechanism design and evolutionary game theory, the experimental economics and system simulation will be combined to study and simulate the customers’ electricity consumption patterns. The impacts of different pricing models on the consumers’ willing to participate in market trading will be quantified using user perceived value theory. By studying the dynamic evolution competing process among government, retailers and end-users, a three-layer evolutionary game model will be built considering user-side device coordination, enterprise market pricing decision and government price regulation to analyzes how the market players can achieve win-win solution via cooperative and non-cooperative games. Without sacrificing the economic benefits of retailors under the premise of meeting the individual needs of end-users, a customized electricity sales package will be developed. By setting scientific, reasonable and effective price signal, the enterprise management behavior and the end-users’ electricity consumption behavior can be directed. The research results from this project are expected to promote the health development of electricity market, to a smooth and sustainable transition of the power grid, and to meet the needs of national economy and social development.

为了打破传统管制型电力定价模式，我国电力市场改革的核心是通过引入竞争性售电主体，构建一个公平开放和有序竞争的电力零售市场，逐步放开用户选择权。本项目拟在机制设计和演化博弈的理论框架下，采用实验经济学和系统仿真相结合的方法，充分研究客户的用电特性和选择偏好，借助用户感知价值理论量化不同定价方法对用户参与市场交易决策的影响。研究政府、企业、用户之间竞争的动态演化过程，构建政府机构电价规制、企业市场价格决策和用户侧设备协调的三层演化博弈模型，分析市场主体如何在合作与非合作的状态下实现共赢。在不牺牲零售企业经济效益的前提下，最大程度地满足电力用户的个性化需求，定制客户化的售电套餐，通过设计科学、合理、有效的价格信号，正确引导售电企业的经营行为和用户的用电行为。本项目研究成果有望促进电力市场的完善成熟，实现渐进式改革的有序推进、市场主体的平稳过渡、电网的可持续发展，满足国民经济和社会发展的需要。

电力零售市场改革的核心是通过引入竞争性售电主体，建立电力零售市场运行机制，逐步放开用户选择权。目前关于售电放开条件下的定价机制的系统性研究还很贫乏。为了有力地推动和促进市场竞争，让电价杠杆作用得到充分发挥，本项目从系统建模、计算方法、影响分析和机制设计等层面，开展电力零售交易机制设计及个性化用户套餐定制研究，实现政府、电网和用户的相互协调和制约。针对各市场主体的行为进行分析和建模，构建用户需求响应、企业市场价格决策和政府电价规制的三阶段随机博弈模型，提出多元用户需求响应交易模式和电力零售定价机制。量化不同定价机制对消费者参与市场交易决策的影响，定制市场环境下电力零售商个性化售电套餐。研究成果有望形成促进智能电网与社会-经济-环境协调发展的电价理论体系，实现渐进式改革的有序推进、市场主体的平稳过渡、电网的可持续发展。

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